<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html; charset=us-ascii"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 14 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
span.EmailStyle18
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Dan<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, October 03, 2011 12:51 PM<br><b>To:</b> ExI chat list<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] The End of the Future<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>On Monday, October 3, 2011 2:20 PM Adrian Tymes <a href="mailto:atymes@gmail.com">atymes@gmail.com</a> wrote:<br>> I had exactly the opposite reaction. It struck me as a lot of bawwing<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>> and nothing on how to actually fix the problem.<br>><br>> Analysis and introspection about the current situation, are only<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>> useful insofar as they point their way to solutions. Analysis about<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>> how terrible everything is, conducted only for its own sake (and/or<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>> the emotional release from affirming that nothing oneself can do<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>> matters), is a form of masturbation. Specifically, it is called<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>> "disasterbation"</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>… Adrian</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I had a different take on it, with an upbeat ending. Consider when you were in high school or college (this thought experiment works better if that has been tragically long ago.) Now think of all the developments you anticipated by 2011, and compare to what happened. We had in mind all the Jetsons stuff, the video phones, flying cars, supersonic commercial flight, orbiting space stations, Mars colonies, advanced urban infrastructure, defeat of crime and all that. But if we had made a list of anticipated developments at that time, we would universally have missed one huge important development, which by itself more than compensates for everything that didn’t happen: computers and internet. We wouldn’t trade that development for all the flying cars and video phones in the world. The internet/fast computers have allowed each of us to develop and grow in way we just didn’t imagine 30 yrs ago.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>When I read Thiel’s commentary, something that struck me is his contention that the development of computers/internet in some ways masked the retrograde development in other areas. So people who never use computers/internet may actually perceive they are falling back, which they are in so many important ways. But if you collect all the people who are very pleased with how technology has advanced in our lifetimes, it will be those who use computers and internet all the time, and use it effectively. These people are us.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>So while we rejoice in the development of all these things, keep in mind that this kind of development might be a one-time event. The next thirty years might not be as much fun as was the last thirty, for computer geeks. Or something new and as completely unforeseen as the internet might come along and make the next 30 even more fun. Let’s watch, shall we?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div></body></html>