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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>When we talk about global catastrophe, probability 0.1 – 1%, it isn’t clear how the term is defined. How would we know if we are having a catastrophe? Who gets to call it?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>We think of epidemics and meteor strikes and so on, but what if a catastrophe has a soft landing, kind of the opposite of a soft take-off singularity? What if faith in the world’s banking system erodes until it just doesn’t work right, and a progressive poverty settles upon the planet, in which rich people are hungry too? We somehow accept the notion of young poor nations being hungry, and do not classify that as a global catastrophe. But as soon as a portion of Europeans, Americans, Japanese, (or a significant number of people anywhere with cell phones and actual internet connections) miss a meal or two, then is it automatically reclassified as a global catastrophe?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>