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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Dan<br><b>Subject:</b> [ExI] Pluto probe nearing target<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><a href="http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Just_A_Three_Year_Cruise_Left_Before_Pluto_Flyby_999.html">http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Just_A_Three_Year_Cruise_Left_Before_Pluto_Flyby_999.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>>…</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Recall that many years ago someone here said this probe was a waste as by the time it reached Pluto better, faster probes would be available</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Dan notice those kinds of predictions were not being made by people in the space biz. We know how long things take to change in that industry. One often feels the need to dodge glaciers as they rush past.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>>…</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> or maybe that body would even be disassembled for other uses.... </span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>We hafta get there before we can disassemble it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>>…</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Well, it's got three more years to get there, but the Singularity hasn't happened yet</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>A post singularity world would still have the same physical limitations we have in doing interplanetary travel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>>…</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Anyone want to take any bets that the probe will get there long before any other hyperoptimistic outcomes? :)</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'> </span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Regards,</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'> </span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Dan</span><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Regarding hyper-optimistic outcomes, I would recommend Michael Lewis’ book The Big Short. If you don’t want to take the time to read some dull economics book, there are online commentaries which give the basic idea in a tenth the time. There are ideas in there with which we can create a model that suggests why there is a hyper-optimistic segment in investment. We can extend those notions to help us understand why something analogous to that exists in technology. An understanding of that model helps each of us figure out where we are on that map.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>The situation Lewis describes explains why it is that I am currently writing the best proposals of my career and none of them are landing research dollars, not one win in the past three years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Have we Lewis readers present?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></body></html>