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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Here in the states our congress passed a law a couple years ago which requires proles to buy health insurance, and a corresponding requirement for insurance companies to sell it to any prole. Arguments about the constitutionality of that law have been swirling ever since, with lower courts handing down a split decision, so Thursday the Supreme Court will announce if the law is legal or not.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>This post isn’t about the Affordable Care Act, but rather the betting that is ongoing regarding the legality of the law on InTrade, which is one of the real-money offspring of Robin Hansen’s Ideas Futures, which many of us played in the old days.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Here’s how the betting is going so far:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><a href="https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/timeAndSalesForm.jsp?contractId=745353&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com">https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/timeAndSalesForm.jsp?contractId=745353&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>What I find interesting is that there are nine justices and I don’t know how many clerks who know and have known since April how this decision went. So these could theoretically bet and be assured of a win, pocketing arbitrarily much cash. In the stock and derivative world, this would be insider trading, but those laws are not necessarily applicable to InTrade. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Hansen’s Ideas Futures was intentionally set up to not only allow insider trading, but in a sense to encourage it: the notion was to offer a meme, buy shares in it and then try to make it so. I made piles of play money by predicting when the next record prime number would be discovered for instance, because I did have some special insight on that question: I created a mathematical model of the growth of GIMPS and superimposed the cumulative probability per candidate and the number of candidates cleared per day. It worked thrice in a row. So now I am rich in imaginary money. I could fund a lavish imaginary retired life with all that imaginary money.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>But InTrade uses actual currency, and we have in the above link an example of where insider trading could be done apparently legally.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>