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On 07/10/2012 20:05, BillK wrote:
<blockquote
cite="mid:CAL_armhHsfspUS0wgMv-QwixPyyj+TbuSXCn8NYydSC1yGOeQg@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<pre wrap="">On Sun, Oct 7, 2012 at 6:32 PM, spike wrote:
</pre>
<blockquote type="cite">
<pre wrap="">OK, cool, we have counterclaims which can be theoretically tested, but only
if we have access to actual data regarding cause of death.
</pre>
</blockquote>
<pre wrap="">
CDC have USA stats for accidents.
Some quotes:
Each year, one in every three adults age 65 and older falls. Falls can
cause moderate to severe injuries, such as hip fractures and head
injuries, and can increase the risk of early death. Fortunately, falls
are a public health problem that is largely preventable.
-----------
So falls are very common in the elderly and it is a known public
health problem that they are actively trying to improve.
About half of elderly falls are in the home. Therefore falls are just
as common in places where there are no smoke alarms.
CDC publish check lists of things to watch out for in the home to
prevent falls. Smoke alarms are not mentioned.</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
That particular reasons are not reported doesn't mean they are
unimportant, but just that the reporting systems do not gather the
data. While there are bizarre ICD9 codes (there is<span
style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial, Helvetica,
sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant:
normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height:
21px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); display: inline !important; float: none;"> E979.5</span><span
style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial, Helvetica,
sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant:
normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height:
21px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); display: inline !important; float: none;"> “Terrorism
involving nuclear weapons")</span>, there doesn't seem to be one
corresponding to "died of falling from chair while fixing smoke
detector":<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://icd9cm.chrisendres.com/index.php?srchtype=diseases&srchtext=fall&Submit=Search&action=search">http://icd9cm.chrisendres.com/index.php?srchtype=diseases&srchtext=fall&Submit=Search&action=search</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://icd9cm.chrisendres.com/index.php?srchtype=diseases&srchtext=furniture&Submit=Search&action=search">http://icd9cm.chrisendres.com/index.php?srchtype=diseases&srchtext=furniture&Submit=Search&action=search</a><br>
An oversight bureuacrats will no doubt soon fix. <br>
<br>
Looking around at the data I found, I did some calculations:<br>
<br>
The number of lives saved by smoke alarms in California is roughly
37,691,912 Californians *(5 saved lives/12 deaths)* (3377 fire
deaths /151268 accidental deaths ) * (57 deadly accidents per year /
100,000 people) = 479 people per year.<br>
<br>
Number of Californians killed in falls per year: 37,691,912
Californians * (8.1 fall deathsper year / 100,000 people) = 3053
fall deaths per year <br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://danger.mongabay.com/injury_death.htm">http://danger.mongabay.com/injury_death.htm</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.firesafetycouncil.com/english/pubsafet/safact.htm">http://www.firesafetycouncil.com/english/pubsafet/safact.htm</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/acc-inj.htm">http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/acc-inj.htm</a><br>
<br>
So the number of extra falls due to the darn smoke detectors need to
be bigger than the number of saved by them in order for them to be
an unmitigated bad thing. But it looks unlikely to me that the new
rules have caused a 15% increase of deadly falls. <br>
<br>
Stupid regulations are still bad, even if they don't kill enough
people to make themselves counterproductive. There is a lot of loss
due to annoyance, extra costs and the need for more red tape. <br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University </pre>
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