<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt">Hi Spike. Is this a trend you see over many days or weeks? I wouldn't read too much into one day's worth of data.<br><br>Gordon<br><div><span><br></span></div><div><span></span></div><div><br></div> <div style="font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <div style="font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <div dir="ltr"> <font face="Arial" size="2"> <hr size="1"> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">From:</span></b> spike <spike66@att.net><br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b> 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org> <br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, October 24, 2012 10:12 PM<br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b> [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans<br> </font> </div> <br>
<div id="yiv1476337871"><style><!--
#yiv1476337871
_filtered #yiv1476337871 {font-family:Calibri;panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
_filtered #yiv1476337871 {font-family:Tahoma;panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
#yiv1476337871
#yiv1476337871 p.yiv1476337871MsoNormal, #yiv1476337871 li.yiv1476337871MsoNormal, #yiv1476337871 div.yiv1476337871MsoNormal
{margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri", "sans-serif";}
#yiv1476337871 a:link, #yiv1476337871 span.yiv1476337871MsoHyperlink
{color:blue;text-decoration:underline;}
#yiv1476337871 a:visited, #yiv1476337871 span.yiv1476337871MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{color:purple;text-decoration:underline;}
#yiv1476337871 p.yiv1476337871MsoAcetate, #yiv1476337871 li.yiv1476337871MsoAcetate, #yiv1476337871 div.yiv1476337871MsoAcetate
{margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma", "sans-serif";}
#yiv1476337871 span.yiv1476337871EmailStyle17
{font-family:"Calibri", "sans-serif";color:windowtext;}
#yiv1476337871 span.yiv1476337871BalloonTextChar
{font-family:"Tahoma", "sans-serif";}
#yiv1476337871 .yiv1476337871MsoChpDefault
{font-family:"Calibri", "sans-serif";}
_filtered #yiv1476337871 {margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
#yiv1476337871 div.yiv1476337871WordSection1
{}
--></style><div><div class="yiv1476337871WordSection1"><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal">There is something I noticed watching InTrade bets for who will win the POTUS elections in a couple weeks. I need to do some math to convince myself that this is real, but what I noticed is that when the guy from Chicago has a bull run, it takes about an hour or more, but when he has a bear run, it can drop as far as it rose in a few minutes. Examples are seen below, with a rise of about a point in about an hour, between 644 and about 740, but the bears do their thing right at 921 for about 5 minutes on wacky high trading volume.</div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"><img id="yiv1476337871Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:1.1147970991@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com" height="250" width="790"></div><div
class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal">This reminds me of stuff we used to talk about way back in the play-money Ideas Futures days, when we used to discuss ways to get the bulls to stampede, or the bears to run for the doors, and make “money” on it either way. That was cool because it was the experimentation days in program trading, and the discussion list was a prototype Reddit group.</div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal">If anyone wishes to comment on the above chart, I am not interested in political commentary, but rather the InTrade angle, and if the notion of Ideas Futures in general shed any light here. I might be seeing ghosts in the data, or some completely random events triggering the well-known phenomenon of how program trading inherently creates positive feedback loops. I don’t know why that in itself would cause asymmetrical
changes in prices. </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal">The only thing I can think of is that this is somehow related to the fact that there are fewer short sellers than those who go long: in this sort of game, people would prefer to hold YES cards for their own guy than NOs for the other guy. But even then, that still doesn’t explain it because the other guy’s price chart is a mirror image of this one: his bulls are twitchy and his bears are more leisurely. So puzzling.</div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal">spike </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div
class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div><div class="yiv1476337871MsoNormal"> </div></div></div></div><br>_______________________________________________<br>extropy-chat mailing list<br><a ymailto="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org"
href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a><br><a href="http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat" target="_blank">http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</a><br><br><br> </div> </div> </div></body></html>