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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>>…</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Gordon<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:#1F497D'>>…</span><span style='color:black'>Hi Spike. Is this a trend you see over many days or weeks? I wouldn't read too much into one day's worth of data</span><span style='color:#1F497D'>…</span><span style='color:black'>Gordon</span><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Hi G, I had seen this before, but didn’t know what to make of it. I see another one happened this morning right at 842 AM, a point drop in about a minute, with a series of trades one tenth of a point apart. It does make me wonder if someone has figured out a way to cause a bear chain reaction somehow, perhaps by setting up a series of accounts with sequential bids that create the appearance of a stampede, which would cause an actual stampede. Then the game is to guess where is the bottom, so one can jump out in time. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>It looks like this kind of game works best when you have a huge trading volume, such as POTUS12, and a lot of players who aren’t regular professional traders. It is an event that lots of people like to speculate on, are willing to put a few bucks into it, and the news cycle influences greatly. Don’t get tangled up in the event itself, but rather that there is huge money to be made. I see from the total volume counter that over 22 million dollars has been spent so far on this one alone, and about 21 million on Romney shares. That doesn’t even include the derivatives, which are yakkity yak wins by at least 30 electoral votes, etc.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Note the twitchy bulls in the Romney graph below:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><img width=489 height=155 id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.jpg@01CDB27F.E438C990"></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>His upticks are sudden, but his bull runs are leisurely, the mirror image of his mainstream opponent. I think someone is manipulating this market somehow, and making buttloads of money. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I think this is just ethically bankrupt and morally unacceptable, that this crafty devil isn’t me, but rather someone else making all that money.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><div><div><div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;background:white'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><hr size=1 width="100%" align=center></span></div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'> spike <<a href="mailto:spike66@att.net">spike66@att.net</a>><br><b>To:</b> 'ExI chat list' <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> <br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, October 24, 2012 10:12 PM<br><b>Subject:</b> [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans</span><span style='color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div id=yiv1476337871><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:#1F497D'>>></span><span style='color:black'>There is something I noticed watching InTrade bets for who will win the POTUS elections in a couple weeks. I need to do some math to convince myself that this is real, but what I noticed is that when the guy from Chicago has a bull run, it takes about an hour or more, but when he has a bear run, it can drop as far as it rose in a few minutes. Examples are seen below, with a rise of about a point in about an hour, between 644 and about 740, but the bears do their thing right at 921 for about 5 minutes on wacky high trading volume </span><span style='color:#1F497D'>…</span><span style='color:black'> the other guy’s price chart is a mirror image of this one: his bulls are twitchy and his bears are more leisurely. So puzzling.</span><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'>spike <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white'><span style='color:black'><br>_______________________________________________<br>extropy-chat mailing list<br><a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a><br><a href="http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat" target="_blank">http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</a><br><br><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div></body></html>