<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12pt"><div><span>On Wednesday, December 12, 2012 9:53 AM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson@gmail.com> wrote:<br>> If we understand this potential problem we can take steps to mitigate it.<br><br>That's about the same for any problem, of course. :)<br><br>> The harder problem is taking steps to mitigate "black swan" events <br>> that we have no idea might happen at all.<br>><br>> A large number of combustion turbines and a year's supply of oil or<br>> methane to fire them might be a prudent backup.<br><br>I don't disagree. I think the problem is mainly looking for the one optimal solution and then enforcing it top-down as opposed to just letting people make bottom up choices on what energy sources they'll use. I think the top-down approach invites "black swans" because it makes for a one size fits all solution, so if the solution
fails and its back up fails too, then you get total system interruption if not collapse.</span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><br><span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span>By the way, speaking of "black swans," have you read Taleb's latest book, _Antifragility_? I'm most of the way through the audio version of it. Some interesting ideas and, of course, some stuff I'd disagree on, but not by much. I enjoyed his earlier books too, though _Fooled by Randomness_ and _The Black Swan_ seemed like the same book just rewritten. Maybe I'll have to go back to them to see if this is just my impression now because I went through so many years ago.<br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; font-family:
arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span>Regards,<br><br>Dan</span></div></div></body></html>