<font color='black' size='2' face='arial'>Sounds <u>very</u> promi<font size="2">sing to me. <font size="2">Again thanks for the input<font size="2"> Robert.<br>
<font size="2">T<font size="2">hat's<font size="2"> an awful lot of potentially power generating real estate <font size="2">in the hands of the public. A lot in the hands of government and I imagine that <font size="2">the</font> minor share would <font size="2">be in the ownership of commercial interests<font size="2">???</font>. <br>
<font size="2">Considering that all those public owners or certainly t<font size="2">he l<font size="2">ions share will already have a grid hook up. It should be a simple case of slapping panels on roofs, grid tie in<font size="2">verters and generation meters. No new real infrast<font size="2">ructure considerations<font size="2"> other than <font size="2">management<font size="2"></font>. Which is <font size="2">a nightmare without a<font size="2">n efficient storage method. Perhaps a global grid will emerge as the solution? Two big cable<font size="2">s around the equator, phase&<font size="2">neutral with <font size="2">all grids connected. eek! Perhaps P2<font size="2">P </font>laser/microwave towers would be a better option?</font></font> </font> </font></font></font></font><br>
<font size="2">What I think is interesting is that the <font size="2">government</font> owned real es<font size="2">tate, highways, meridians, car parks and the like<font size="2">.</font> <font size="2">M</font>ay be far slower to develop<font size="2">. <font size="2">The average householder can have panels installed and be up and running in just a few hours<font size="2">. Mine took a few days from making the <font size="2">decision</font> to <font size="2">installation</font>.</font> <font size="2">W</font>hile it will take some seriously pl<font size="2">anning, man power and disruption to <font size="2">install PV on t<font size="2">he <font size="2">Government</font> land<font size="2"> and <font size="2">that's</font> without endless <font size="2">committees</font> and objections<font size="2">.</font></font> Also existing power companies generally have minimal land so have a barrier to market of finding suit<font size="2">able real estate <font size="2">for new <font size="2">installations</font>. They will have trouble finding land <font size="2">that</font> isn't being used for something else.</font></font><br>
<font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2">T</font></font>he public gets to be in first mover position<font size="2">. Granted most have <font size="2">the problem of initial outlay.</font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2">The public who cannot afford initial outlay costs could in the<font size="2">or</font>y do what I proposed earlier. Secure <font size="2">credit against future generation. </font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font> </font></font></font><br>
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<font size="2">I think this kind of data supports my energy economy. A new installation paid for by credit secured on generation is energy economy in all but name. The debt will be paid as per the normal PV payback time, The ener<font size="2">gy cost of <font size="2">the</font> PV will be paid back and any production from that point on would be cash in the bank. <font size="2">Aprox energy payback <font size="2">4 years, in<font size="2">itial <font size="2">cost of equipment paid back 7 years, plus interest if loaned so say 10. That is 14 years. A lot shy of the <font size="2">Guaranteed minimum</font> 100% output life of 25 years that comes with some panels. You would still have another 11 y<font size="2">ears of maximum <font size="2">generation</font> being pumped into the economy + any <font size="2">additional years of </font>reduced output until they finally die. if economic to leave them there.</font></font></font></font></font></font><br>
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<div> Thats all at todays efficiency levels<font size="2">. It<font size="2">s realistic<font size="2"> right now.</font></font></font><br>
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<div style="font-family:arial,helvetica;font-size:10pt;color:black">-----Original Message-----<br>
From: spike <spike66@att.net><br>
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org><br>
Sent: Sun, 23 Dec 2012 22:21<br>
Subject: [ExI] another excellent meaty post from robert kennedy p.e.<br>
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<div class="MsoNormal">WOW thanks Robert, very interesting post. Note to ExI, for some reason, Robert’s ISP is apparently fighting with the ExI server, and I don’t know how to make those things get along with each other. Here’s Robert’s second post:</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">Spike, while you're working the mailserver issue, please re-post this brief reply to several responses.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">WHY THE FOCUS ON OIL (per Rafal)?</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">Petroleum just by itself is the largest single industry on Earth, about 10 cents on the dollar of everything humans make or do. Today, petroleum is also the greatest source of primary energy for the human race, having eclipsed coal a few years ago. (Btw, natural gas is catching up fast, and I think already exclipsed coal also in this country last year.)</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">With my quick & dirty estimate last night, I showed the trend of the EROI figure of merit in petroleum is rapidly sliding in a worrisome direction, in a short timescale as Extropians would view time. Since petroleum is our greatest source of primary energy, this developing situation should concern everybody.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">ELECTRICITY.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">Total nameplate capacity of the U.S. electricity grid is ~1 TW; electric generating capacity averaged over the year is just half that,</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">~0.5 TW. In other words, the duty cycle of the average prime mover is ~50%. (Surprised?)</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">For the human race as a whole, multiply these figures by about 4. </div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">(Electricity is the most useful form of energy there is, but most people are not as well wired as we are.) So, humanity's electric grid right now is ~4 TW peak, or >2 TW steady-state.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">Re: "one quarter of the land area" of CONUS (per Spike).</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">CONUS contains 2 billion acres. 1 acre of land can host a quarter-megawatt, +/-, depending on where it is and which solar tech you're using. So figure 2 million acres = half a terawatt to equal the steady-staate grid. But, since solar only works when the sun is shining, obviously, the duty cycle is only ~20%. Presupposing a decent method to store electricity storage comes along (one does not exist yet), you'd need five times that much land to meet nominal average demand. So figure 2 million acres X 5 = 10 million acres to actually feed the grid round the clock. That's half a percent of what we've got in the Lower 48. More than that much is already covered with roofs, not to mention roads and parking lots. (Roughly 100 million acres is "developed" in some way right now with some permanent</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">improvement.) So, without covering up a single blade of grass or other greenspace, I figure there's enough space on rooftops that exist right now and happen to be oriented in a useful direction (southeast thru southwest azumith) to host much more than that 1 terawatt of nameplate national capacity. You could easily double that again just putting solar carports over every parking lot (and then you'd get to park in the shade while charging your car).</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">(As an exercise, try comparing the gross revenue per square foot from PV on your roof or parking lot with the annual property tax per square foot. You'll be amazed.)</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">ALL PRIMARY ENERGY.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">This naturally leads to the question, how much land do we need to provide all energy needs via exclusively solar power, including storage?</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText"> </div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">Well, about as much sunlight falls on the lit face of earth (land &</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">sea) in one hour as the entire primary energy consumption of the human race in one year. (Both figures roughly 500 quads. Since this is the </div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">Extropian list, you can say that a quad is very nearly an exajoule. </div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">Heh.) So raw sunlight::primary energy is a ~10,000-to-1 ratio. That is a lot of headroom.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">Once transmission loss, embedded energy, and parasitic or "house loads" are factored in, thermal processes for generating electricity are roughly 30% efficient at converting the raw energy of the fuel into a useful form. (This is improving rapidly in some sub-sectors. </div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">It may surprise you to learn that the electricity sector is the </div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">cleanest and most decarbonized of the three major end-use sectors. </div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">All forms of solar are still only a tiny fraction of U.S. electricity supply, but the electricity it produces goes straight into the grid without further conversion, Furthermore, the sunlight is not counted against primary energy input, just like rainfall is not counted against hydro dams, nor wind against windmills. Seems unfair, but that's how the accounting works, due to how primary energy is</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">defined.) So to get Americans' primary power input to the electricity sector, simply triple the steady-state grid load, you'll be close enough. Solar's penetration right now won't affect this number. That is, 0.5 TW x 3 = 1.5 TW.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">For most people in the developing and developed world, the primary energy partition amongst electricity/ transport/ raw heat is roughly one-third/one-third/one-third per sector. So to get total steady-state primary power for a country, triple the number again, i.e. 3 X the primary power input. Note that 3 x 3 is about an order of magnitude.</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText"> </div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">So now you have a quick means for a horseback estimate of a reasonably developed country's primary power demand to run everything they've</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">got: multiply their known steady-state electricity demand by an order of magnitude, and you'll be within 10% of the true figure.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">(As I said, Americans are a little more wired than most, 40+% not 33%. </div>
<div class="MsoPlainText"> So, multiplying by ~2.5 instead of 3 to get American primary power for everything results in 1.5 x 2.5 = ~4 TW instead of 4.5 TW.)</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">So the average primary power to run the whole world, expressed in SI units, is something like 4 to 5 times 4 to 4.5, or 16 to 22 terawatts.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">Remember I said we'd need 10 million acres (including storage) to run a half-terawatt grid round the clock here in CONUS, and that total American primary power is 4 terawatts.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">We would not need 80 million acres to run everything in America, however, since the sunlight falling on PV modules does not count against primary energy consumption the way chemical fuels mined from the ground does. I estimate that 30 million acres would enough, certainly no more than 50. What's interesting about that latter figure is, that's the amount of land covered by asphalt just for America's 4 million miles of paved highways. A similar amount is available in the medians and rights-of-way.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">For the world as a whole then, 100 million acres (just 5% of CONUS) to</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">200 million acres (amount of active good farmland cultivated in CONUS) would do the job.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">And remember with things like solar carports that this power production need not exclude other land uses. There are substantial benefits re: energy security and governance with locating supply close to loads.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">PS. And now I know what BOTEC means.</div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">--</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">Robert G Kennedy III, PE</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ultimax.com">www.ultimax.com</a></div>
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