<div dir="ltr"><div><div><div><br></div>Hi Gordon,<br><br></div>Wouldn't it be great to know, concisely and quantitatively, just what all the transhumanist Bitcoin experts believed about this? Just how bullish are you/they? And I bet tracking this real time, over lots of experts, all communicating concisely and quantitatively about why they believe, what they believe, would provide the most intelligent possible predictions about both the near and long term future of Bitcoins, and any effect they may have on the world economy, and so on.<br>
<br></div><div>I, like you, Gordon, am very bullish. I think it would be much better to invest in the coins, at this point, and am heavily investing in them, rather than mining hardware. James, are you investing in mining hardware or Bitcoins? Is anyone else? I consider you a good expert, and would like to know which way you really lean, why, and if you are actually investing either way?<br>
<br></div><div>Wouldn't it be great to know, concisely and quantitatively, what all possible risks the experts believe, and their odds, and all that?<br><br></div><div>If bit coins turn out to be catastrophic in any way, for either holders or the economy, it'd be great to know, sooner, rather than later, and a crowd of experts, amplifying their wisdom, concisely and quantitatively, about potential risks, would be way beyond any other intelligent system.<br>
<br></div><div>It does take a lot of work (one person can't do it) for everyone to build consensus, and to communicate concisely and quantitatively, so you know who does and does not agree, and why, but, as can now be shown on the consciousness survey project, the intelligence of everyone working on such blows anything else (like the primitive ivory tower, and their worthless 20 thousand "peer reviewed" documents) or any other individual "talking head pundit" away on any moral issue such as this.<br>
<br><br></div><div>Brent Allsop<br><br><br></div><div><br>Brent Allsop<br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br><br><br><br><br><br><br></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, May 14, 2013 at 10:06 AM, Gordon <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:gts_2000@yahoo.com" target="_blank">gts_2000@yahoo.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div><div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:times new roman,new york,times,serif"><div style="font-family:'times new roman','new york',times,serif;font-size:12pt">
<span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:13px">Mirco Romanato <<a href="mailto:painlord2k@libero.it" target="_blank">painlord2k@libero.it</a>> wrote:</span><br></div><div style="font-style:normal;font-size:16.363636016845703px;background-color:transparent;font-family:'times new roman','new york',times,serif">
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<div class="im"><div dir="ltr"><span><font face="Arial"><b>> </b></font></span><span style="font-family:'times new roman','new york',times,serif;font-size:12pt">Il 14/05/2013 15:39, Gordon ha scritto:</span><br>
</div><div style="font-family:'times new roman','new york',times,serif;font-size:12pt"><br></div></div><div style="font-family:'times new roman','new york',times,serif;font-size:12pt"><div class="im">
>> Here is a live stream of an inexpensive Butterfly ASIC in operation:<br>>> <br>>> <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/05/butterfly_live/" target="_blank">http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/05/butterfly_live/</a><br>
>> <br>>> Pooled, it is mining about 2 BTC per 10 days. That is a fantastic ROI at<br>>> current prices, but I suspect you cannot buy one anytime soon at the<br>>> list price. As I understand it, it is backlogged into the thousands.<br>
>> There is no telling what the economics will look like by the time your<br>>> order is filled, if it is ever filled.<br><br>>Currently the difficulty of mining went up five times from January.<br>>If
it keep this, by the end of September it will be up other ten times<br>>from January. The raising appear to be linear, so it is proportional to<br>>the ASIC production (or it appear so to me).<br><br></div>Given the uncertainty about delivery dates on these Butterfly ASIC miners, my thought for the moment is that anyone fundamentally bullish on the outlook for BTC over the next year or so should invest in BTC rather than commit those same funds to a miner order. Would you agree, Mirco?</div>
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Gordon<br><br><br><br></div> </font></span></div> </div> </div></div><br>_______________________________________________<br>
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