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Hi Gordon,<br>
<br>
Thanks for the reply!<br>
<br>
On 5/22/2013 7:41 PM, Gordon wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:1369273299.95185.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com"
type="cite">
<div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times
new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt">
<div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 13px;">Brent
Allsop <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:brent.allsop@canonizer.com"><brent.allsop@canonizer.com></a> wrote:</span><br>
</div>
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size:
16.363636016845703px; font-family: 'times new roman', 'new
york', times, serif; background-color: transparent;
font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size:
16.363636016845703px; font-family: 'times new roman', 'new
york', times, serif; background-color: transparent;
font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">> It
could </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">become the
Mother of all Ponzi schemes. </span></div>
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12pt; font-family:
'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; background-color:
transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:
12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size:
16.363636016845703px; font-family: 'times new roman', 'new
york', times, serif; background-color: transparent;
font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ponzi
schemes, normally understood, involve early investors being
paid with the investments of late investors. That is not
happening with bitcoin.</span></div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<br>
If you really think this, you should canonize it. I bet nobody
would agree with you. But I could be very mistaken. You haven't
convinced me with just this. Sure, talking short term, what you are
saying may be true. But long term, after Bitcoins have sucked every
cent of capital out of the stock market, all real estate, and
everything of any value, all of the people that had been living high
on the hog for so long, off of the profits of the last investors,
and there is finally nothing of value left in society to invest in
Bitcoins, what happens then? It's obviosly not like any Ponzi
scheme to date, but I believe your missing the possible bigger
picture. Again, canonizer.com can help filter mistakes like this,
if they are mistakes, from all of our thinking, while the good ideas
can rise above this kind of noise by building an expert consensus.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote
cite="mid:1369273299.95185.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com"
type="cite">
<div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times
new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt">
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12pt; font-family:
'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; background-color:
transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:
12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size:
16.363636016845703px; font-family: 'times new roman', 'new
york', times, serif; background-color: transparent;
font-style: normal;"><span style="background-color:
transparent; font-size: 12pt;">> If you project the
current </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">growth rates
at all, it seems very likely that a single Bitcoin </span><span
style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 12pt;">could
be </span><span style="background-color: transparent;
font-size: 12pt;">worth over </span></div>
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12pt; font-family:
'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; background-color:
transparent; font-style: normal;"><span
style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 12pt;">a $
million within 5 years. And a good possibility that that </span><span
style="font-size: 12pt;">will be just the start.<</span></div>
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12pt; font-family:
'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; background-color:
transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:
12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size:
16.363636016845703px; font-family: 'times new roman', 'new
york', times, serif; background-color: transparent;
font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I hope
you're right!</span></div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<br>
Again, short term, I, and I'm sure the entire herd is obviously very
tempted to think the same. But, are you being completely morally
blind to the long term fundamental possibilities?<br>
<br>
<blockquote
cite="mid:1369273299.95185.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com"
type="cite">
<div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times
new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt">
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times,
serif; font-size: 12pt;">
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times,
serif; font-size: 12pt;">
<div class="y_msg_container"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div class="y_msg_container"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">>
I've canonized a first draft of my </span><span
style="font-size: 12pt;">thoughts about Bitcoins, and
their future in a "Currency Expert Survey </span><span
style="font-size: 12pt;">Project" </span><span
style="font-size: 12pt;">See: </span><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/155"
target="_blank" style="font-size: 12pt;">http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/155</a><</div>
<div class="y_msg_container"><br>
</div>
<div class="y_msg_container">Interesting project. I might
contribute if I find the time.</div>
<div class="y_msg_container"><br>
> How many of you own bitcoins? Anyone Mining
bitcoins? and what do all of you think the value of a
Bitcoin will be in one year?:<</div>
<div class="y_msg_container"><br>
</div>
<div class="y_msg_container">I followed Bitcoin casually
from its inception, but (regrettably) did not take it
seriously until only recently, when the total
capitalization broke above 1 billion USD. I invested on
three separate occasions after the market corrected. I'm
happy with my average price, which is below the current
market. </div>
<div class="y_msg_container"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div class="y_msg_container"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The
longer term charts would seem to indicate that the price
is currently completing a consolidation pattern with the
price fairly stable around $122 +/- $5 or so. If the
price breaks higher here, to about $130-$135, especially
on high volume, I would guess then that it might rise
again in the next year to something near its all time
high of about $260. If it instead breaks to do the
downside then I would be concerned about the next year
or so. Of course this is all predicated on the validity
the science (art?) of technical analysis of price
trends, which might be akin to reading tea leaves. If
anyone has developed a model for doing fundamental
analysis of bitcoin prices then I would be interested in
hearing about it.</span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<br>
Again, to me, this is all short term meaningless tea leaves that
have nothing to do with any true long term mathematical fundamentals
that really matter. You can't predict how fast the current holders
of Bitcoins are going to temporarily cash in, and even if you could,
what good is that compared to any long term mathematical
fundamentals. As is typical of the herd, so many pundits are
focusing on this kind of short term BS, and completely missing what
is really important.<br>
<br>
<blockquote
cite="mid:1369273299.95185.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com"
type="cite">
<div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times
new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt">
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times,
serif; font-size: 12pt;">
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times,
serif; font-size: 12pt;">
<div class="y_msg_container"><br>
> I know all of you are very intelligent Bitcoin
experts</div>
<div class="y_msg_container"><br>
</div>
<div class="y_msg_container">I do not consider myself an
expert in Bitcoin, but I do have a lot of experience
trading and investing in other markets. I spent many years
as an investment adviser. I happen also be something of a
geek, and so here I am with a position in bitcoins. :)</div>
<br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<br>
You're at least as good as an expert as I, and probably 90% of the
world's experts. Let's get a "Currency Expert" camp started for
you. As a peer, I'd surely rate you near the top of My list of
experts. There are quite a few experts out there I know I'd rank
highly. Who do you all think we would all rank as the worlds best
currency expert? <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/151">http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/151</a>. Would all of
you trust the consensus of such a list of peer ranked experts as
much as I would or should?<br>
<br>
The question is, how much expert consensus is there about either of
our positions? That is what will surely be the "expert consensus",
any such expert consensus that arises will be way more intelligent
than any of us as blind and biased individuals could come up with.<br>
<br>
What do you currently think the value of Bitcoins will be in one
year? Is there any possibility it will be around 5 times it's value
today, as is being predicted by the "Law of Bitcoins" camp?
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2">http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2</a> If so, it takes less than a
minut to join that camp. If not, it only takes a minute or two to
start a new camp providing any different POV - so we can see which
way the emerging expert consensus is leaning. Far less time than it
took you to waste your time replying to this post. Or do you just
prefer lazy half baked, possibly mostly mistaken thinking, and have
no interest in finding out if anyone agrees with you, or not, and
why?<br>
<br>
Here's another question for all you way better than me experts,
especially Giulio who I've CCed. Is there any way the Bitcoin
network could be altered to allow for more than currently allotted
21 million Bitcoins? Even if 90% of the holders wanted to do this
to try to stop a terrible hyper deflation? It doesn't seem possible
to me, since even if 90% of the exchanges did agree to 'fork' the
block chain, if 5% kept the old only 21 million chain operating,
everyone would quickly abandon the 90% fork and switch over to
purchase the still hyper deflating chain, making the problem
explosively worse. Am I just a clueless, mistaken, Bitcoin non
expert, or has anyone else wondered such things? If I'm mistaken,
what is the expert consensus, and what will make it pop, or not -
and when?<br>
<br>
Gordon, another question for you. What do you think is the best
wallet, and which wallet are you using? Are you in the Coinbase
camp, or is there something better and safer?
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/127">http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/127</a> . And what do you think of any
other currency, in comparison, like the Ripple?
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/150/4">http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/150/4</a> ? Are you investing in any
other currency? Which ones are you most focusing on? Do you have
any interest in how your current thinking may compare with other
experts? Anyone else? Same questions! Would you not value knowing
what the experts think is the current best and safest wallet to
use? If the one you are currently using, become risky, or inferior
compared to another, wouldn't you want to know, before everyone
else?<br>
<br>
Brent Allsop<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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