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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>>…</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Tomaz Kristan<br><b><span style='color:#1F497D'>>…</span></b></span><o:p></o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>>…</span>Likewise, we should be soon able to simulate any device inside a supercomputer, before building that device for real<span style='color:#1F497D'>…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Ja we can do that now. The nuclear testing treaties of the late 80s and early 90s were driven by the development of software which models a nuclear warhead with sufficient accuracy that it became unnecessary to actually build and test the designs. Good chance the commies figured out how to do the same, so pretty soon there was a handshake and we haven’t needed to test nukes since then. These guys who are doing those tests now are doing actual physical device nuke tests now do that just to get attention. It works: they get a lot of attention that way.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>>…</span>Some would name this a Singularity and they would be right<span style='color:#1F497D'>…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Hmmm, not so you would notice. We can model every aspect of nuclear particles and interactions, but not yet a human brain. The singularity occurs when we can make a sim of a brain, one that is smart enough to design a smarter version of itself. If we manage to sim human level intelligence, even if specifically in the area of software design only, that still isn’t good enough: we have over 7 billion human brains on this planet with perhaps 10 to 20 million of them occupied with software development, and none of them are smart enough to write that sim, not even if they work together in big smart groups.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>One possibility is that such software can theoretically exist but that humans are just not quite smart enough to write it. This is something that I have been pondering a lot lately, and thinking about what we need to do if that is the case. We need some kind of sustainability for the long run, perhaps a few hundred to a few thousand years. Look at us; how long have we been debating the singularity right here? Twenty years now? We aren’t any closer than we were then, other than computers are faster and better connected. It is possible that humans are just slightly too dumb to discover how to cause a singularity.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>