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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 2013-05-27 15:25, spike wrote:<br>
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Look at us; how long have we been debating the singularity
right here? Twenty years now? We aren’t any closer than we
were then, other than computers are faster and better
connected. It is possible that humans are just slightly too
dumb to discover how to cause a singularity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<br>
This is actually a really good question. How smart do you have to be
in order to trigger a singularity?<br>
<br>
Toby Ord pointed out that there is a curious coincidence in much of
our thinking. We (handwavy use of us in the community who think that
intelligence explosions are real possibilities) tend to think there
is some limit - dogs will not invent singularity tech no matter how
much time [*] we give them, yet many of us think there is some
takeoff point near current human mental and technical capacities.
This limit is presumably set by the laws of nature (in particular,
the laws of computational complexity). Yet our current state is
totally contingent - it is happening right now, and was not around
in the past nor will it be in the future unless we manage to
stagnate. So why are we assuming the takeoff point is near this tiny
little window of capacity we are having right now? One could imagine
Greek philosophers talking about Aristotle's "talking tools" and the
progress over in Alexandria coming up with an intelligence explosion
concept, yet clearly being far away from any takeoff points.<br>
<br>
Some possible answers might be that (1) the takeoff point is either
far below or above us (see footnote below). (2) The question is
badly posed, or the concepts used are verbiage. (3) there is an
anthropic factor were beings who talk around singularities tend to
be found just before them. (4) there is no such thing as a takeoff
point. (5) we are living in an unusual era. <br>
<br>
<br>
[*] Give simple animal enough time to evolve in the right
environment, and they may of course become intelligent, develop
tech, and have a singularity. So framing the question right turns
out to be really hard: how do we distinguish between waiting for
natural evolution plus individual efforts as a result of it, having
some resources and intelligence and using those, and other methods
like making random trial-and-error? One possible answer to the
question might simply be that it is wrongly posed: give enough
hydrogen some time, and it will turn into singularity creatures. I
suspect re-framing the question so it becomes well posed will be
rather useful for improving our thinking about the topic.<br>
<br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University
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