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Hi Carl and Gordon,<br>
<br>
Hmm. I completely agree with all this - that "currencies are
representations of value", and that they "only grow in relation to
the underlying productivity of their economies". But that is the
point. If the underlying economy is growing exponentually,
similare to Moore's Law, then since Bitcions are limited in
quantity, they must comparatively grow in value to adequately
handle the usage growth in demand in any exponentially growing
economy?<br>
<br>
Gordon said he "has difficulty believing there is a Moore's Law
for Bitcoins". So where is the disconnect, if the underlying
economy, and demand, in the long term is growing exponentially?<br>
<br>
As you can see in this historical graph of Bitcoin valuation
growth: <a href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2">http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2</a>.
It has so far followed more of a Moore's law than almost anything
else. So how much more of this kind of Moore's Law Growth will be
required before you'll jump camps and admit that there is a
Moore's Law like growth in value of Bitcoins? In other words,
what kind of evidence will falsify your beliefs? Obviously, if
there is a deviation in this so far very linear (on a logarithmic
graph) growth pattern, this will falsify my predictions. So,
again, if you think there will be a deviation from this kind of
very linear growth, what do you think this deviation would most
likely be? More growth? Less growth? Any random growth that is
just not Moore's Law like linear growth which we've seen so far?
What, exactly, are you saying/predicting, and where do we
disagree, if we indeed do disagree?<br>
<br>
Brent Allsop<br>
<br>
<br>
On 7/4/2013 2:18 AM, Carl Youngblood wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:CAB2H9XK6bg-8_K75YiwSc_pX+bd1nZtxPJNCrVr9XteEmQNccg@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">I agree with Gordon. Currencies are representations
of value, not actual resources. Markets are ways of exchanging
value, and they only grow in relation to the underlying
productivity of their economies.</div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Jul 4, 2013 at 3:41 AM, Brent
Allsop <span dir="ltr"><<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:brent.allsop@canonizer.com" target="_blank">brent.allsop@canonizer.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
.8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div text="#000000" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<div><br>
Hi Gordon,<br>
<br>
Interesting that you have such a different POV.<br>
<br>
So then given your best guess, what would you say is the
most likely value of Bitcion one year from now. More or
less than the predicted 100% increase? I figure we
should be in very much agreement on this, even if we do
disagree on the "Moore's law"ness of such predictions?
Why is it that everyone misses and ignores the important
things people agree on, yet focus on much less important
disagreements?<br>
<br>
I also have troubles understanding how you can say that
"currency and commodity markets don't work that way".<br>
<br>
It seems to me, the value of Gold is exactly the result
of two "moores laws" playing against each other. Number
one, the deemand, which is increasing exponentually,
paralelling the growth of humanity and the economy. And
second, the growth of Gold supply has been more or less
growing exponentially, for all history, especially when
the price gets high like it has been. There is an old
popular adage that an ounce of Gold has always been
equal to the value of a good Man's suit. The only
reason this has been true, for centuries, is because of
these two mores law like behaviors have been so closely
matched. You'll probably point out that an ounce of
Gold can, today, pay for many men's suits. And I"ll
just fire back that the price is way ahead of itself,
and precisely why it is dramatically crashing in value,
and will continue, likely tell it get's back to the
price of a man's suit. And of course, now, Gold has a
Big competitor, so my prediction is that it could even
drop further, because of this.<br>
<br>
I will agree with you that fiat currency, controlled by
any central resurve, does not behave according to any
Moore's law, precisely because the central authority
intervenes to keep a fairly constant inflation. But I
don't see how you can think that Bitcion, and it's
restricted supply nature, isn't any different than any
such fiat currency!?<br>
<br>
It seems to me, you're just focusing on the short term
'commodity' prices and such. I completely agree with
you that there is no "moore's law" with any of that.
But I don't care about any of that, and nobody can
predict any of that. What I like to get a hold of, are
the long term exponential trends and laws that will
always, in the long run, drastically overwhelm all such
temporary roller coaster noise.<br>
<br>
Brent<br>
<br>
<br>
On 6/23/2013 11:04 PM, Gordon wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:times new
roman,new york,times,serif">
<div><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:13px">Brent
Allsop <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:brent.allsop@canonizer.com"
target="_blank"><brent.allsop@canonizer.com></a>
wrote:</span><br>
</div>
<div><span style="font-size:12pt"><br>
</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size:12pt">> The new version
of the "Canonized Law of the Crypto Coin" camp </span><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:'times new roman','new
york',times,serif;font-size:12pt">
<div style="font-family:'times new roman','new
york',times,serif;font-size:12pt">
<div>> predicting future values of Bitcion just
went live. <br>
<br>
> <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2"
target="_blank">http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2</a><br>
<br>
>It's predicting a continued Moore's Law like
100% / year growth...<br>
<br>
I have difficulty believing there is anything
like a Moore's Law for Bitcoin. Currency and
commodity markets don't work that way, and I
don't see why Bitcoin should be different. <br>
<br>
Gordon</div>
<span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"> </font></span></div>
<span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"> </font></span></div>
<span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"> </font></span></div>
<span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"> </font></span></blockquote>
<span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"> <br>
</font></span></div>
<span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">
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