<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt"><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.800000190734863px;">Brent Allsop <brent.allsop@canonizer.com> wrote:</span><br></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div class="y_msg_container"><div id="yiv2198721430"><div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div class="yiv2198721430y_msg_container"><div id="yiv2198721430"><div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);
font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div class="yiv2198721430y_msg_container"><div id="yiv2198721430"><div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div class="yiv2198721430y_msg_container"><div id="yiv2198721430"><div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div
style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div class="yiv2198721430y_msg_container"><div id="yiv2198721430"><div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><div><font face="Arial"><span style="font-size:12.800000190734863px;"><br></span></font></div><div><font face="Arial"><span style="font-size:12.800000190734863px;">>>I recognize and trust you as much more of an expert on things like relationships of the dollar, Bitcion and the DXY, but I am interested, and was
one of the only people that did comment on this... Am I not getting everything you're getting from this?<<</span></font></div><div><br><span style="font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-family: Arial;">It is important to understand that when you look at the market price of a bitcoin, you're actually looking at an exchange rate in the currency markets. If bitcoin is an accurate digital simulation of a precious metal backed currency, its exchange rate should behave like one. Eye-balling the charts, I observed that it did seem to behave like one for about six weeks. Perhaps it was only a coincidence, but if and when bitcoin becomes less volatile and more accepted as a currency, I plan to do some real statistical analysis of the relationship between bitcoin and the dollar.</span><br></div><div><font face="Arial"><span style="font-size:12.800000190734863px;"><br></span></font></div><div><font face="Arial"><span
style="font-size:12.800000190734863px;">This is not to say there is anything like a Moore's Law involved. I mean simply that when the dollar declines in value then all other things being equal it should take more dollars to buy a bitcoin, making bitcoin more valuable in dollars. And when the dollar appreciates, bitcoin should become less valuable in dollars. This same principle is true for bitcoin's relationship to the euro or any other ordinary currency. </span></font></div><div style="font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-family: Arial; background-color: transparent;"><font face="Arial"><br></font></div><div style="font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-family: Arial; background-color: transparent;"><font face="Arial">Bitcoin is I think already an interesting way to bet against the dollar, but very speculative. A</font>ssuming the inverse correlation with the dollar is meaningful and statistically significant, (as I suspect it is or will soon be),
rapid and substantial appreciation in the dollar could disrupt the uptrend in bitcoin in dollar terms. This is true even if bitcoin continues to succeed in other ways. </div><div><font face="Arial"><span style="font-size:12.800000190734863px;"><br></span></font></div><div><font face="Arial"><span style="font-size:12.800000190734863px;">Gordon</span></font></div><div><font face="Arial"><span style="font-size:12.800000190734863px;"><br></span></font></div><div><font face="Arial"><span style="font-size:12.800000190734863px;"><br></span></font></div> <div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <div dir="ltr"> <hr size="1"> <font size="2" face="Arial"> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">From:</span></b> Brent Allsop <brent.allsop@canonizer.com><br> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">To:</span></b> Gordon
<gts_2000@yahoo.com> <br><b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Cc:</span></b> "transfigurism@googlegroups.com" <transfigurism@googlegroups.com>; ExI chat list <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org> <br> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Sent:</span></b> Saturday, August 10, 2013 7:19 AM<br> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Subject:</span></b> Re: [ExI] [mta] Re: "Crypto Coin Law" vs "Law of the Crypto Coin"?<br> </font> </div> <div class="yiv2198721430y_msg_container"><br><div id="yiv2198721430">
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Hi Gordon,<br>
<br>
I recognize and trust you as much more of an expert on things like
relationships of the dollar, Bitcion and the DXY, but I am
interested, and was one of the only people that did comment on
this. I also asked for more info from you - perhaps you didn't
see that post?<br>
<br>
It seems to me this indicates evidence of more volume of bitcoin
activity, and evidence of more arbitrage activity, and I think I
understand what you are saying about this being evidence of how
much Bitcion is like all the other currencies? Am I not getting
everything you're getting from this?<br>
<br>
I guess I'm just not as interested in short term things like this
and spend more of my time on more important long term things that
make all things like this irrelevant in the long term.<br>
<br>
Also, I think we agree on most things, we are just twisting things
a bit differently. Even though I currently have a different
opinion from you and think "Law of the Crypto Currency" is a good
name for the camp, I do recognize, like you, there is some amount
of risk, just like there is risk to things like "Moore's Law", and
there is certainly short term risk to things like Kurzweil's law
of accelerating returns. But, again, long term is something,
different, entirely. True, what people want can change,
especially in the short term, but in the long term they always
tend to change towards that which is better. Evolution, can
suffer setbacks, for various short term reasons, but long term, it
cannot 'devolve' - such is just logically necessary in a very law
like way, in my opinion.<br>
<br>
Brent<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
On 8/8/2013 11:50 PM, Gordon wrote:<br>
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<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;">
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 13px;">Brent Allsop
<a rel="nofollow" class="yiv2198721430moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" ymailto="mailto:brent.allsop@canonizer.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:brent.allsop@canonizer.com"><brent.allsop@canonizer.com></a> wrote:</span><br>
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<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">> So are you and James saying that it isn't
possible for very intelligent people to have real rational
ways of seeing something, like a particular investment, is a
sure thing...</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">I can't speak for James, but I am saying that no
rational investor believes in sure things. Naive, gullible,
unsophisticated investors do.</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;background-color:transparent;">> You're only
saying that because there has never been a sure financial
bet before now! </span><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">I'm saying it because I know a little bit about how
investments in commodities work, and bitcoin is just another
commodity. It is unique, yes, but there is nothing about its
uniqueness that suggests it should not act like any other
commodity.</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">It is something like a newly discovered precious
metal, (digitally simulated), and one that lends itself to
commercial transactions and thus might become widely
accepted as a currency. I know something about how precious
metals and currency markets work. They don't work according
to anything like a "Moore's Law."</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><br>
I mentioned in a recent post which was mostly ignored that I
was intrigued by how Bitcoin's recent price action seemed to
have been inversely correlated with the DXY index, which is an
index of the USD vs. a basket of currencies of major US
trading partners. I wonder if you understood a single word I
said, and why it might be important.<br>
<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">Gordon</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><br>
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</blockquote>
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