<div dir="ltr">On Thu, Oct 24, 2013 at 10:38 AM, Eugen Leitl <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:eugen@leitl.org" target="_blank">eugen@leitl.org</a>></span> wrote:<br><div class="gmail_extra"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="im">On Thu, Oct 24, 2013 at 10:21:07AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:<br>
<br>
> Eugen, your pessimism is showing again. Would you like an optimism<br>
> transfusion? I think I have enough for both of us.<br>
><br>
> It was only in the 1990s that we sequenced the entire human genome. And now<br>
<br>
</div>That was two decades ago. What impact on human longevity has that<br>
knowledge given us, so far?<br></blockquote><div><br></div>The latest report from the Centers for Disease Control is that in 2009 the U.S. life expectancy exceeded 78 years for the first time ever. At the turn of the last century, this number was 47.3 years.<br>
<br>In fact, in the life expectancy during 10 of the past 10 years was the highest on record.</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote">Certainly a small part of this has come from the human genome project. But how long did it take from Columbus discovering America to gold going back to Portugal? Some projects are long term. Be sure the human genome project will eventually bear fruit worth having. It is a young science.<br>
<div> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="im">> look what it costs:<br>
> <a href="http://bit.ly/18PrQUD" target="_blank">http://bit.ly/18PrQUD</a><br>
> That is a truly shocking curve.<br>
<br>
</div>I agree it's a good thing. I wish we knew how to engineer<br>
genomes to build proteins to specs.<br></blockquote><div><br></div><div>Me too. And we will someday.</div><div> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="im">> We are only just now bringing anything based on that huge breakthrough to<br>
> the marketplace. Understanding the human genome will take time, but we are<br>
> parsing it with increasingly powerful computers. Get the protein folding<br>
<br>
</div>Computers are good for many things, but ability to engineer organisms<br>
is not yet one of them. Arresting nevermind reversing aging in a living<br>
adult animal is a massive molecular-scale control problem. This spells<br>
medical nano, and we can't do even the basic MNT stuff. GMO is pretty<br>
weak sauce, and would only work in the yet unborn.<br></blockquote><div><br></div><div>Still, it will eventually help you and I. I'm pretty sure of that.</div><div> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="im">> algorithm down, and we'll see some real breakthroughs real fast. Yes it is<br>
> a hard problem. Can it be solved? Maybe with special hardware or something.<br>
><br>
> Maybe with online games.<br>
> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foldit" target="_blank">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foldit</a><br>
><br>
> Start parsing the genome of various plants and animals, and we'll figure<br>
> out even more stuff.<br>
><br>
> Medicine is making a radical jump towards being more predictably scientific<br>
<br>
</div>One of my hats involves reading primary medical literature, and unfortunately<br>
I'm not seeing anything too radical there, yet.<br></blockquote><div><br></div><div>No. I agree with you. But it is coming. One of the first cool things I think we'll see is cloned teeth at the dentist.</div><div>
</div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="im">> and less trial and error prone. This really does make a difference. If you<br>
> can predict what a compound might do without animal trials, the things you<br>
> can do with the same amount of research money start to go up a Moore's Law<br>
> kind of curve. That's a game changer, don't you think?<br>
<br>
</div>You sound like me, early 1990s. Virtual screening is pretty much dead now.<br></blockquote><div><br></div><div>It will come back. Just needs the right algorithms and computing power.</div><div> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="im">> Said another way, when medicine becomes engineering, won't that change the<br>
> rules of the game?<br>
><br>
> And can't you see that medicine is evolving towards engineering?<br>
<br>
</div>I can see that. I just don't see much relevant progress since I was<br>
17. I then thought we'll need to freeze, and now it's three decades<br>
later. It seems that I was correct.<br></blockquote><div><br></div><div>I'm not counting you out yet. Something happened young padawan to turn you to the dark side...</div><div> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="im">> There is no limit on the resource of human ingenuity over time in such<br>
<br>
</div>There's one thing: we haven't got too much time to buy us more time.<br></blockquote><div><br></div><div>All right, we'll all die soon... might as well party like rock stars now.</div><div><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="im"><br>
> matters. This isn't a limited resource like sweet crude. Just walk into the<br>
> light Eugen!<br>
<br>
</div>Optimism is considered dangerous to your health.<br></blockquote><div><br></div><div>Uh, quite the opposite.</div><div><a href="http://www.webmd.com/balance/news/20041101/optimism-may-help-you-live-longer">http://www.webmd.com/balance/news/20041101/optimism-may-help-you-live-longer</a><br>
</div><div><br></div><div>I know WebMD isn't exactly nature, but it's pretty nice.</div><div><br></div><div>-Kelly</div></div></div></div>