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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 2013-10-28 05:17, paul michael
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:1382937460.88686.YahooMailNeo@web141602.mail.bf1.yahoo.com"
type="cite">
<div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff;
font-family:HelveticaNeue, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial,
Lucida Grande, sans-serif;font-size:10pt">
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 13.3333px;
font-family: HelveticaNeue,Helvetica
Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Lucida Grande,sans-serif;
background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"> That is
why I'm worried, transitional times destroy, they also create
but creating takes time. Shopkeepers, shoe salesmen, people
who just are living week to week will really need WYSIWYG with
respect to this 'box'.</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<br>
WYSIWYG does not solve the problem. The laser printer and windowing
system did not turn everybody into a graphics designer or author. To
actually make something useful with a box you need to understand the
right kind of engineering, hacking and design. It is likely a
mindset rather than a skillset, and not everybody can get it. <br>
<br>
In a world where you could get anything you could imagine, the
people with poor imagination would still be losers. And they cannot
easily imagine a better imagination. <br>
<br>
But this is separate from the inherent turbulence of transitions. I
think APM is going to be much less dramatic than we commonly think
here simply because it just transforms a lot of manufacturing,
retail and transport - important parts of the economy, but already a
fairly thin slice of the overall cake. It is technologies like AI
that transform services - the big pie slice - that really will
change the economy. Yes, APM will make our material culture quite
different. But it doesn't change the service backbone. And being
less disruptive than AI doesn't mean it is going to be minor - I
would expect at least a few major power losing out in the
transition. <br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University
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