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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 2013-11-07 20:40, Kelly Anderson
wrote:<br>
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cite="mid:CAPy8Rwb9V8mS9oqgqSHMCZHSd31vKOHwvfPkUScEO-fZO=3eFA@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">On Wed, Nov 6, 2013 at 5:29 PM, Anders Sandberg <span
dir="ltr"><<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:anders@aleph.se" target="_blank">anders@aleph.se</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
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<div class="im">On 07/11/2013 00:23, John Grigg wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
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No comments? I find this absolutely fascinating, even
if it takes years to really bear fruit. "Summon my
mentat!"<br>
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My comment is this: <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2013/10/breaking-the-mould-genetics-and-education/"
target="_blank">http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2013/10/breaking-the-mould-genetics-and-education/</a><br>
<br>
Great research, worth doing - but might not in itself be
useful for selecting or boosting ability. What it can do
is to validate other tests developed by looking at the
normal range. And maybe hint about where to start looking
in the genome and brain.</blockquote>
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<div>If all it did was provide a DNA screening test for
potential mathematical geniuses (no small feat) it would
be very useful in helping to find students to focus
special attention on.</div>
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<br>
Statistics doesn't work that way. Hypothetical example: if
*everybody* in the genius group reliably shows a certain signal it
might still be useless in practice, if 50% of the population has the
signal. Yes, if you lack the signal you will not be a genius, but if
you have it the probability is just a tiny fraction higher.<br>
<br>
Since the genius group will be small it will not be possible to
determine genomic signals very firmly - simply too few data points.
<br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University
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