<html>
<head>
<meta content="text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1"
http-equiv="Content-Type">
</head>
<body text="#000000" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 2014-01-07 07:42, Andrew Mckee
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote cite="mid:op.w9a22xos0wog37@kira" type="cite">On Tue, 07
Jan 2014 05:33:43 +1300, Anders Sandberg <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:anders@aleph.se"><anders@aleph.se></a>
wrote:
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite">The transition from no human emulations
and a world with emulation may also be gradual if it is
computing-limited: at first you need major supercomputers to run
an emulation in realtime, later Moores law allow the big ones to
run faster or multiple cheaper realtime emulations, followed by
ever faster and more numerous copies. In the scanning- or
neuroscience-limited transition the need for planning ahead is
larger.
<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
Ummm, but isn't Moore's law only two or 3 process shrinks away
from being stone cold dead?
<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
Haven't people been saying that since day one? Actually, *Moore* did
it in his original paper if I remember right. I have stopped
listening to detailed worries like this (sorry, Eugene) and instead
have turned to the data: when I fit logistic curves (implicitly
assuming a stop) to flops/$/s the lower end of the 99% confidence
interval is five orders of magnitude more powerful than today.<br>
<br>
A world with merely 100,000 times better computers than today is
likely a no-upload world: at least detailed biophysics is not going
to be feasible outside giant installations. But I only give it a 1%
chance of happening outside catastrophe scenarios. <br>
<br>
<blockquote cite="mid:op.w9a22xos0wog37@kira" type="cite">So how
many super computers can this future energy grid support?
<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
Depends on the other law in town, Koomey's law<br>
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koomey%27s_law">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koomey's_law</a><br>
Up until recently energy was not much of a design criterion, so I
suspect we might even see an acceleration as we start caring more
about energy than size. The limits are as always tricky to judge: <br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);
font-family: palatino, georgia, verdana, arial, sans-serif;
font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;
font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 26px;
orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline
!important; float: none;">The current IBM roadrunner does 376
million calculations per watts. If we take my mid-range
estimates of computing needs, 10^22 to 10^25 FLOPS, then a
single emulation would need 10^13 to 10^16 watts. The total
insolation of Earth is about 10^17 watts, so this won't do -
there would be space for just a few minds on the entire planet.
But current research on zettaflops computing suggest we can do
much better. A DARPA exascale study suggests we can do 10^12
flops per watt, which means "just" a dozen Hoover dams per mind.<span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><a
href="http://netalive.startlogic.com/debenedictis.org/erik/Publications-2005/Reversible-logic-for-supercomputing-p391-debenedictis.pdf"
style="color: rgb(0, 51, 102); text-decoration: underline;
font-weight: normal; font-family: palatino, georgia, verdana,
arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal;
font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 26px;
orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Quantum dot cellular
automata could give 10^19 flops per watt</a><span style="color:
rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: palatino, georgia, verdana, arial,
sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant:
normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal;
line-height: 26px; orphans: auto; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline
!important; float: none;">, putting the energy needs at 200-2000
watts.</span></blockquote>
<a
href="http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2009/03/a_really_green_and_sustainable_humanity.html">http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2009/03/a_really_green_and_sustainable_humanity.html</a><br>
<br>
And reversible computations are way better, of course. <br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University
</pre>
</body>
</html>