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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>>…</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Anders Sandberg<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] Death follows European contact (Mirco Romanato)<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>BillK<span class=detail> <<a href="mailto:pharos@gmail.com">pharos@gmail.com</a>></span> , 21/4/2014 10:46 AM:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The BBC has an article up showing that in recent years removing lead <br>from petrol leads 20 years later to a big reduction in violent crime. <br>Prison and social policies make no difference - it's a medical <br>problem. <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Effect size? Causality testing? The theory is nice, but one needs to check for how much is explained by the lead hypothesis.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935107000503?np=y">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935107000503?np=y</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>gives some data, and it definitely looks like something is going on - but lead is just a small (<20% of variance) part of the decline. What evidence does Gesch have to claim it explains 90%?<span style='color:#1F497D'>...</span> Extraordinary claims (the social stuff does not matter for this social outcome) require extraordinary evidence. <span style='color:#1F497D'> </span>Anders Sandberg<span style='color:#1F497D'>…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Ja. Lead was only one of many neurotoxins extant in the years in question. In the 1960s and 70s, there were so many recreational pharmaceuticals in popular circulation that it would be difficult to extract a single culprit chemical.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>In previous discussions here, we noted that food evolves to become ever more irresistible. I have the notion that recreational drugs evolve as well, which explains the enduring popularity of marijuana: the users of that particular substance are less likely to commit violent or otherwise illegal acts, opting more often for utterly passive inane discussions and harmless activities in the home. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>In the 60s and 70s, we suffered plenty of drugs which induced their hosts into all manner of self-destructive and others-destructive behaviors. I think lead in gasoline was a contributor, but only one of several, perhaps less so than good old-fashioned testosterone, so abundant in young men. (Visualize a dope-addled mugger. How old is he?) Most western cultures were younger in those benighted times than they are now. Age alone might explain most of the Pinker Effect.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>