<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:garamond, new york, times, serif;font-size:18pt"><div><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'><a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50947659/huntersinthedark.pdf"><font color="#0000ff"><a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50947659/huntersinthedark.pdf">https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50947659/huntersinthedark.pdf</a></font><a href=""></a></a><a href=""></a></span><a href=""></a><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span></div><div><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'><a href="">Some</a>
questions and observations:</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>The question of
spatial segregation seems to rely upon neglecting </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>possible
aspects of the effectiveness of common tactics such as </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>dispersion
and stealth over vast periods of time.</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'><br></span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>The
“open” nature of space means that there is no finite known</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>number
of potential sources for the probes or any certainty about</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>the
overlapping nature of how far probes of any particular origin</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>have
spread. Any particular model may make assumptions but</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>there
are an open number of possible models describing density,</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>reproductive
rates, dispersion, stealth and probe purposes/tactics,</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>and
evolving probes – changing tactics. It would be like traveling </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>to
an unknown continent with millions of species of animals and </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>plants
and having to discover by trial and error which may be </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>harmful
or poisonous and having no knowledge of their range,</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>habitat,
or reproductive rates. Some species travel thousands of</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>miles
at times and some occasionally travel well outside of their</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>normal
territories.</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'><br></span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>The
open nature of probes leaves open the possibility that encounter</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>with
ANY probe could lead to catastrophic civilization ending </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The real question is not about the probes but
what civilizations</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>must
to in order to reduce the impact of their potential.</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'><br></span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>The
analysis of the Fermi paradox in this case should be more </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>concerned
about what the response of civilizations would be</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'></span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>to
the open ended nature of such threats.</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'><br></span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>In
the article the conclusion is:</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'><br></span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; line-height: normal; -ms-text-autospace:; mso-layout-grid-align: none;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>“…since we still exist, we
conclude that deadly probes are not</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>the
main cause of the Fermi paradox.”</span></div><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'><div><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>The
real question should be what are the necessary and sufficient strategic
</span><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>doctrines of civilizations enjoying long term survival. I believe that answer
is the main cause of the Fermi paradox.</span></div><div><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>That answer is a response to the energetics of WoMD available in space no matter who or what wields them.</span></div></span><div><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14pt;'>Dennis
May</span><br></div> <div style="font-family: garamond, new york, times, serif; font-size: 18pt;"> <div style="font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <div dir="ltr"> <div class="hr" style="margin: 5px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); border-image: none; height: 0px; line-height: 0; font-size: 0px;" contenteditable="false" readonly="true"></div> <font face="Arial" size="2"> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">From:</span></b> Anders Sandberg <anders@aleph.se><br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b> Dennis May <dennislmay@yahoo.com>; ExI chat list <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org> <br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Saturday, June 14, 2014 5:14 PM<br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b> Re: [ExI] for the fermi paradox fans<br> </font> </div> <div class="y_msg_container"><br><div id="yiv9898420559"><div><div><span
class="yiv9898420559clickable"><span title="dennislmay@yahoo.com">Dennis May</span><span class="yiv9898420559detail"> <dennislmay@yahoo.com></span></span> , 14/6/2014 9:13 PM:<br clear="none"><blockquote class="yiv9898420559mori" style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex; border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style: solid;"><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: garamond, new york, times, serif; font-size: 18pt; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><div><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 14pt;'>Questions
concerning the Fermi Paradox should include the variable of</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span>adversaries
at every juncture since all of biology is known to deal with </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span>the
issue continually from the earliest systems forward.</span></div></div></blockquote></div><div><br clear="none"></div><div>This is a problematic approach. Yes, freely evolving systems of replicators generically get parasitism. But in the Fermi context free evolution is just one option: a civilization that has developed into a singleton might coordinate future behaviour to preclude parasitism or adversarial behaviour, or it might decide on "intelligent design" of its future development. If it is also alone within the reachable volume its dynamics will be entirely adversary-free. Maybe this is not the most likely case, but it it has to be analysed - and understanding it is pretty essential for being able to ground the adversarial cases. </div><div><br clear="none"></div><div>When Joanna Bryson gave a talk here ( it can be viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtxoNap_UBc ) she also used a biological/evolutionary argument for why we do not
need to worry about the AI part of the intelligence explosion; as I argued during the Q&A, there might be a problem in relying too much on biological insights when speaking about complex agent systems. Economics, another discipline of complex systems, gives very different intuitions. </div><div><br clear="none"></div><div>Then again, I do think running game theory for Fermi is a good idea. I had a poster about it last summer: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50947659/huntersinthedark.pdf In this case I think I showed that some berserker scenarios are unstable. (And thanks to Robin for posing the issue like this - we ought to write the paper soon :-) )</div><div class="yiv9898420559yqt9228309309" id="yiv9898420559yqtfd40387"><div><br clear="none"></div><br clear="none"><div><blockquote class="yiv9898420559mori" style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex; border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style:
solid;"><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: garamond, new york, times, serif; font-size: 18pt; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span></span></div><div><span style='font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 14pt;'>Once super-intelligences are in competition</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span>I
would expect things to get very complicated concerning the continued</span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span>advantage
of “size” versus many other variables becoming enabled.</span></div></div></blockquote></div></div><div><br clear="none"></div>We know that game theory between agents modelling each other can easily become NP-complete (or co-NP):<div>https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370206000397?np=y</div><div>https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370297000301?np=y</div><div>And these are bounded agents; superintelligences will create an even more complex situation.</div><div><br clear="none"></div><div>Of course, as seen in this little essay,</div><div>http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2009/10/how_to_survive_among_unfriendly_superintelligences.html</div><div>non-superintelligences can thrive under some circumstances simply because they go under the radar. A bit like how many insects do not use adaptive immune systems, or certain military devices are not armoured - it is not worth increasing resilience of individuals when you
can get resilience by having many instances. <br clear="none"><div></div><br clear="none"><br clear="none">Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University</div></div></div><br><br></div> </div> </div> </div></body></html>