<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body dir="auto"><div style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;">On Jan 26, 2015, at 6:34 PM, "spike" <<a href="mailto:spike66@att.net">spike66@att.net</a>> wrote:</div><blockquote type="cite" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;"><div class="WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Ja. This is why we need to stay focused on that question.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Of course there is the possibility that the advanced civilizations go to intentional hiding. If they do that they can still listen for EM signals from afar but would not attract attention to themselves.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">We are the regulars at the English pub, who have been together so long and told all our jokes so many times we could just number them. The ET is hiding meme should have a number, as should the intelligent-species-always-nukes-itself meme. Since Carl Sagan thought of that one a long time ago, perhaps that should get 1. We could create a table, then see if we can list every known explanation for why the hell the heavens are silent:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">1.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Intelligence nukes itself<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">2.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Intelligent species hide<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">3.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Intelligent species don’t hide but they don’t speak because<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">a.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">They don’t care what we think<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">b.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">They don’t want to tell us what they already know<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">c.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">They don’t want to interfere with our evolution<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">d.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">All intelligent species eventually turn in on themselves<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">e.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">They operate on a different timescale and speed scale than we do<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">f.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">It wastes too much energy<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">g.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">The notion disagrees with the dominant religious meme<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">4.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Intelligent species don’t build visible structures because<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">a.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">They don’t need to:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore"><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span>i.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">They find plenty of energy without it<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore"><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span>ii.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">There is a good thermodynamic reason why it is impractical<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore"><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span>iii.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">There aren’t enough metals in general<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore"><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span>iv.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">The metals are best used for something else<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore"><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span>v.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">It disagrees with a dominant religious meme<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">b.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">It attracts predator civilizations<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">c.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">They convert all available matter into energy<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">d.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">It is much harder than it looks<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">5.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Intelligent species do build mega-scale projects but we don’t see them because<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">a.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">We don’t know how<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">b.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">They are too far away (intelligent life is extremely rare)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">c.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">It exists outside our light cone<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">d.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">They hide it (might be a subset of 2)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">e.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">The structures are almost all in the core of the galaxy because<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore"><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span>i.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">There are a lot more stars there<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore"><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span>ii.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">There is a lot more metal available<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore"><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span>iii.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Structure-capable species soon move there, abandoning the galactic outskirts<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">6.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">There isn’t any intelligent species out there because<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">a.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Evolution is far harder than it looks<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">b.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">There hasn’t been enough time for much of it to evolve<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">c.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Our definition of intelligence is wrong<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">d.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Civilizations are short-lived always (a variation on 1)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">As I do this exercise, it occurs to me that this whole exercise must be redundant. The idea is so obvious that someone else has already thought of it a long time ago and created a protocol. Anyone know where that is to be found and who invented it? The Fermi Paradox should have its own taxonomy. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">spike</span></p></div></div></div></blockquote><br><style><!--
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--></style><div><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">This reminds me of Stephen Webb's _If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Fifty Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life_. Have to grab a copy to see where the overlap and gaps are between your and his respective lists.</span><br><br><div style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;"><div><font size="3"><span style="line-height: 20px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.294118); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.231373);">Regards,</span></font></div><div><font size="3"><span style="line-height: 20px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.294118); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.231373);"><br></span></font></div><div><div><div><font size="3"><span style="line-height: 20px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.294118); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.231373);">Dan</span></font></div> See my Kindle books at: </div><div><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/">http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/</a></div></div></div></div></body></html>