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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>John Clark<br><b><span style='color:#1F497D'>…</span></b></span><o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal>> there is just no way we are the only ones here.<o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>>…</span>I hope you're wrong, otherwise there is some catastrophe awaiting any civilization that gets a little more advanced than ours<span style='color:#1F497D'>…</span>John K Clark <span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Ja. This is why we need to stay focused on that question.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Of course there is the possibility that the advanced civilizations go to intentional hiding. If they do that they can still listen for EM signals from afar but would not attract attention to themselves.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>We are the regulars at the English pub, who have been together so long and told all our jokes so many times we could just number them. The ET is hiding meme should have a number, as should the intelligent-species-always-nukes-itself meme. Since Carl Sagan thought of that one a long time ago, perhaps that should get 1. We could create a table, then see if we can list every known explanation for why the hell the heavens are silent:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>1.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Intelligence nukes itself<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>2.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Intelligent species hide<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>3.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Intelligent species don’t hide but they don’t speak because<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>a.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>They don’t care what we think<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>b.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>They don’t want to tell us what they already know<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>c.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>They don’t want to interfere with our evolution<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>d.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>All intelligent species eventually turn in on themselves<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>e.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>They operate on a different timescale and speed scale than we do<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>f.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>It wastes too much energy<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>g.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>The notion disagrees with the dominant religious meme<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>4.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Intelligent species don’t build visible structures because<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>a.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>They don’t need to:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'><span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span>i.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>They find plenty of energy without it<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'><span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span>ii.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>There is a good thermodynamic reason why it is impractical<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'><span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span>iii.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>There aren’t enough metals in general<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'><span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span>iv.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>The metals are best used for something else<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'><span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span>v.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>It disagrees with a dominant religious meme<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>b.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>It attracts predator civilizations<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>c.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>They convert all available matter into energy<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>d.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>It is much harder than it looks<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>5.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Intelligent species do build mega-scale projects but we don’t see them because<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>a.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>We don’t know how<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>b.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>They are too far away (intelligent life is extremely rare)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>c.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>It exists outside our light cone<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>d.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>They hide it (might be a subset of 2)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>e.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>The structures are almost all in the core of the galaxy because<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'><span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span>i.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>There are a lot more stars there<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'><span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span>ii.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>There is a lot more metal available<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.5in;text-indent:-1.5in;mso-text-indent-alt:-9.0pt;mso-list:l0 level3 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'><span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span>iii.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Structure-capable species soon move there, abandoning the galactic outskirts<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>6.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>There isn’t any intelligent species out there because<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>a.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Evolution is far harder than it looks<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>b.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>There hasn’t been enough time for much of it to evolve<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>c.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Our definition of intelligence is wrong<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='margin-left:1.0in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level2 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>d.<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Civilizations are short-lived always (a variation on 1)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>As I do this exercise, it occurs to me that this whole exercise must be redundant. The idea is so obvious that someone else has already thought of it a long time ago and created a protocol. Anyone know where that is to be found and who invented it? The Fermi Paradox should have its own taxonomy. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>spike <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>