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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">I like the point that it takes about
two generations to get to the full force of the cognitive era. If
there is no AGI I think this is entirely correct. This era will be
about one generation after the full force of global social media
becomes truly mature. <br>
<br>
It is an interesting exercise to think about what ubiquitous
college level QA systems could do. Especially since topics could
be user-defined rather than standard topics, and the seed data
things like one's own social media past.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
On 2015-11-17 08:51, Adrian Tymes wrote:<br>
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<div>Quoted with permission from Jim Spohrer, director of IBM's
Cognitive Systems Institute. (It came up when he and I were
talking, and I figured it would be of interest to this list.)<br>
<br>
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I'm trying to get his thoughts on what would be needed to get
the debater he has to be able to invent - to understand the
topic being discussed well enough to come up with original
observations and suggest improvements...say, to its own
architecture.<br>
<div><br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">===</font><br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">Here is what I tell
students....</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">... to try to provoke their
thinking
about the cognitive era:</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (0)
2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system -
40% accuracy;</font><br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can
get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that
question
is out of scope")</font><br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- today's systems can only answer questions,
if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly</font><br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- debater is an example of where we would
like to get to though in 5 years: </font><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY"
target="_blank"><font size="2" color="blue"
face="sans-serif"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY</a></font></a><br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- more about the ambitions at </font><a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://cognitive-science.info/"
target="_blank"><font size="2" color="blue"
face="sans-serif"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://cognitive-science.info">http://cognitive-science.info</a></font></a><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (1)
2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any
textbooks and
produce a Q&A system </font><br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average)
student performance on questions</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (2)
2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty
performance on questions</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (3)
2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000 </font><br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- an exascale is the equivalent compute of
one person's brain power (at 20W power)</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (4)
2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows
them in many
ways better than they know themselves </font><br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- memory of all health information,
memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive
assistant,
personal coach, process and memory aid, etc.</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (5)
2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that
"work for
them" </font><br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- better management of your cognitive assistant
workforce is a course taught at university</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">In 2015, we are at the
beginning of
the beginning or the cognitive era...</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">In 2025, we will be middle of
beginning...
easy to generate average student level performance on
questions in textbook....</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">In 2035, we will be end of
beginning
(one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average
faculty level
performance on questions in textbook....</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif"> </font><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2"
target="_blank"><font size="2" color="blue"
face="sans-serif"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2">http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2</a></font></a><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year
generations
out, the cognitive era will be in full force.</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">Cellphones will likely become
body suits
- with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features:</font><br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">Cognitive Mediators will read
everything
for us, and relate the information to us - and what we know
and our
goals.</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">Think combined personal
coach, executive
assistant, personal research team....</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">The key is knowing which
problem to
work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy,
water, food,
wellness - and note especially the wellness suit at the
end:</font><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif"> </font><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL"
target="_blank"><font size="2" color="blue"
face="sans-serif"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL</a></font></a><br>
<br>
<font size="2" face="sans-serif">Do not be put off by the
beginning of
the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the
leasat... but
the projects are really good if you have the patience to
watch.</font><br>
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<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University
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