<div dir="ltr"><div>Quoted with permission from Jim Spohrer, director of IBM's Cognitive Systems Institute. (It came up when he and I were talking, and I figured it would be of interest to this list.)<br><br></div>I'm trying to get his thoughts on what would be needed to get the debater he has to be able to invent - to understand the topic being discussed well enough to come up with original observations and suggest improvements...say, to its own architecture.<br><div><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">===</font><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">Here is what I tell students....</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">... to try to provoke their thinking
about the cognitive era:</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (0)
2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy;</font><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can
get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question
is out of scope")</font><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- today's systems can only answer questions,
if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly</font><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- debater is an example of where we would
like to get to though in 5 years: </font><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY" target="_blank"><font color="blue" size="2" face="sans-serif">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY</font></a><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- more about the ambitions at </font><a href="http://cognitive-science.info/" target="_blank"><font color="blue" size="2" face="sans-serif">http://cognitive-science.info</font></a><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (1)
2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and
produce a Q&A system </font><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average)
student performance on questions</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (2)
2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (3)
2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000 </font><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- an exascale is the equivalent compute of
one person's brain power (at 20W power)</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (4)
2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many
ways better than they know themselves </font><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- memory of all health information,
memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant,
personal coach, process and memory aid, etc.</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif"> (5)
2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for
them" </font><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">
- better management of your cognitive assistant
workforce is a course taught at university</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">In 2015, we are at the beginning of
the beginning or the cognitive era...</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">In 2025, we will be middle of beginning...
easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook....</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">In 2035, we will be end of beginning
(one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level
performance on questions in textbook....</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif"> </font><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2" target="_blank"><font color="blue" size="2" face="sans-serif">http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2</font></a><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations
out, the cognitive era will be in full force.</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">Cellphones will likely become body suits
- with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features:</font><br><br><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">Cognitive Mediators will read everything
for us, and relate the information to us - and what we know and our
goals.</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">Think combined personal coach, executive
assistant, personal research team....</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">The key is knowing which problem to
work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food,
wellness - and note especially the wellness suit at the end:</font><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif"> </font><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL" target="_blank"><font color="blue" size="2" face="sans-serif">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL</font></a><br><br><font size="2" face="sans-serif">Do not be put off by the beginning of
the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but
the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.</font><br></div></div>