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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body bgcolor=white lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'> extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Anders Sandberg<br><b>Sent:</b> Saturday, November 21, 2015 11:02 PM<br><b>To:</b> extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] bar sinister gets more than you, was:... gets more than you do<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>On 2015-11-22 04:44, spike wrote:<br><br><o:p></o:p></p><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>It occurred to me that without some kind of indication of a range of possible amounts in the vault, this is any ordinary trivial guessing game. But if we assume the amount of money in the vault is somewhere between 0 and 6,283,185 dollars with each amount being equally probable, the problem becomes a calculation.</span><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><br>I actually liked the undefined nature of the amount. Thinking about things that could have any order of magnitude brings up really cool issues of noninformative priors<span style='color:#1F497D'>…I</span>n your lovely problem having an upper limit Omega makes things easier but less interesting. <br><br><o:p></o:p></p><pre>-- <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Anders Sandberg<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>No problem, we can branch this. The unlimited version will be called the Anders branch. Anders do feel free to clarify or elaborate on your branch. Until then, my bid on the Anders branch of the Potter Deal is 1E10 bucks.<o:p></o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Clarification on the Spike branch regarding nonlinearities please. If a windfall 10k were to fall into your lap, it would make your day. If 10 million falls into your lap, it would make your day even more of course, but not a thousand times more. The difference between 10M and ten million ten thousand dollars is practically negligible in its day-making potential, even though the same delta made your hypothetical day in the first instance. This is an example of a non-linearity I wish to have you ignore for this thought experiment. The game is to maximize your take and simultaneously minimize the evil Mr. Potter’s winnings, ignoring other considerations. Think like a mathematician for this exercise, for hypothetical money is only that.<o:p></o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>The notion of nonlinearities gave me an insight. To us proles, a windfall gain of ten bucks is cool but a windfall gain of 20 bucks is twice as good because we are down in the linear range. Once we get up in the thin air (well, thin to me anyway) of ten million bucks, we are way out of the linear range. You and I can scarcely distinguish the day-making potential of 10 million vs 10,010,000 dollars. Out there, we are just sinful rich. The good kind of sinful rich, the kind worth going to hell for eternity kind of rich, either number.<o:p></o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Here is the insight, which might already have a name but I don’t know what it is, a paradox of sorts. You and I are way out in the nonlinear range at 10 million bucks, but a big corporation is not. To some big company such as an insurance biggie, there is a difference between ten million and 10,010,000, and it is pretty similar the difference between 0 and 10k. <o:p></o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Insight: the fact that out there in the seven digit numbers, we are in the nonlinearities but big corporations are in the linear range allows them to enter into deals which both parties may enter a deal which favors the big guy, yet both parties benefit.<o:p></o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Example, the insurance company owes you 10 million bucks, but you need to go to court to prove your case. It is a strong one you will likely win, but the insurance guy offers to write a check for 5 million today and go away, no questions asked. You think OK I can be rich today or even more rich in perhaps a couple years, but both riches are out in the nonlinearities, OK sure 5 million today. Both parties know it is a terrible deal for the prole, both know the big evil insurance company won that negotiation, but both parties enter it willingly and more or less satisfied (they more, you less.)<o:p></o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>This is Spike’s paradox in the Potter problem. Use it freely.<o:p></o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Anders, I still want your bid in the 10M version of the Potter problem. In return I thought of a scheme for determining V in the Anders branch, so Potter players, do make two bids please. You may change your bid up to Tuesday afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>My bids: Spike branch: 3,333,333 bucks, Anders branch: 1E10 bucks.<o:p></o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre></div></body></html>