<html>
<head>
<meta content="text/html; charset=windows-1252"
http-equiv="Content-Type">
</head>
<body bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000">
Testing out systems of policymaking and governance in the small is
very helpful, since if there is a bug you need to test it for a time
roughly proportional to the mean time between failure for that kind
of bug. Ideally you do it independently in parallel to get data
faster.<br>
<br>
However, social technologies have scaling properties that matter.
The behavior among 10+ team members is very different from 100+
groups or a 100,000+ population. Social dynamics matter: small
groups often get effects from the individual relationships, while
larger groups have anonymity effects. Also, the number of minds
trying to find loopholes and ways to crack the system increases with
the group size. <br>
<br>
If there is a chance p per participant of finding a problematic
loophole, the chance that it will be found is 1-(1-p)^N, which
becomes large for N=-ln(2)/ln(1-p) ~= ln(2)/p. So if p is 0.01, then
you need 70 people to have about 50% chance of finding the bug. Once
N is on the order of millions, you can no longer run tests - your
system is part of society (or is society), so stuff with p less than
one in 1.4 million cannot be tested away, you have to deal with it
as it happens for real. <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 2015-12-20 02:30, Flexman, Connor
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:CA++aaA-WTDRBoFycSV+LXrJrQx_8ddDJHkCojNcrz56O2MUt_Q@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html;
charset=windows-1252">
<div dir="ltr">
<div class="gmail_extra">
<div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Dec 18, 2015 at 12:14 AM,
Adrian Tymes <span dir="ltr"><<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:atymes@gmail.com" target="_blank">atymes@gmail.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
.8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div class="gmail_extra">
<div class="gmail_quote"><span class="">On Thu, Dec
17, 2015 at 6:49 AM, Jason Resch <span dir="ltr"><<a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:jasonresch@gmail.com"
target="_blank"><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:jasonresch@gmail.com">jasonresch@gmail.com</a></a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0
0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc
solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">Check out Liquid Democracy, now
used at Google:
<div><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.tdcommons.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1092&context=dpubs_series"
target="_blank">http://www.tdcommons.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1092&context=dpubs_series</a><br>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
</span>
<div>Good luck refining it into something most
people will be able to understand enough to
trust. (Not a sarcastic comment: that really is a
large problem getting this system deployed on more
than niche electorates.) <br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
<div>Perhaps if more companies begin using it like Google
does, or we roll it out in very sub-national realms, people
will slowly become comfortable with it? It looks promising
enough that it might be worth pushing for on a smaller
scale, to see how far people can take it before
insurmountable problems show up.</div>
<div>Connor</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<fieldset class="mimeAttachmentHeader"></fieldset>
<br>
<pre wrap="">_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat">http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</a>
</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University</pre>
</body>
</html>