<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:#000000"><br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Dec 21, 2015 at 2:55 AM, Anders Sandberg <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:anders@aleph.se" target="_blank">anders@aleph.se</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
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Testing out systems of policymaking and governance in the small is
very helpful, since if there is a bug you need to test it for a time
roughly proportional to the mean time between failure for that kind
of bug. Ideally you do it independently in parallel to get data
faster.<br>
<br>
However, social technologies have scaling properties that matter.
The behavior among 10+ team members is very different from 100+
groups or a 100,000+ population. Social dynamics matter: small
groups often get effects from the individual relationships, while
larger groups have anonymity effects. Also, the number of minds
trying to find loopholes and ways to crack the system increases with
the group size. <br>
<br>
If there is a chance p per participant of finding a problematic
loophole, the chance that it will be found is 1-(1-p)^N, which
becomes large for N=-ln(2)/ln(1-p) ~= ln(2)/p. So if p is 0.01, then
you need 70 people to have about 50% chance of finding the bug. Once
N is on the order of millions, you can no longer run tests - your
system is part of society (or is society), so stuff with p less than
one in 1.4 million cannot be tested away, you have to deal with it
as it happens for real. <br><div><div class="h5">
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline">What are the odds of finding the expertise in a sample of 10 who can evaluate whether to issue bonds on the sewer system, hire more police and so on. This is why we have representative democracy - you elect people who then hire experts to advise on these decisions. There is no guarantee that the elected have any idea of which experts to hire and when not to listen to them, but that's the system.</div></div></div></div></blockquote><div><br><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline">In the USA we have the Bill of Rights to take some decisions out of the purview of the majority.</div> <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline"> Neither should the majority make decisions for a town, state, or country. Far too much ignorance and lack of education.<br><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline">Once only landed gentry could vote. At least that insured that at least some of them were aware of the bigger issues. It was proposed here, of course.<br><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline">bill w</div></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000"><div><div class="h5"><br>
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<br>
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<br>
<div>On 2015-12-20 02:30, Flexman, Connor
wrote:<br>
</div>
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<div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Dec 18, 2015 at 12:14 AM,
Adrian Tymes <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:atymes@gmail.com" target="_blank">atymes@gmail.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div class="gmail_extra">
<div class="gmail_quote"><span>On Thu, Dec
17, 2015 at 6:49 AM, Jason Resch <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jasonresch@gmail.com" target="_blank"></a><a href="mailto:jasonresch@gmail.com" target="_blank">jasonresch@gmail.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">Check out Liquid Democracy, now
used at Google:
<div><a href="http://www.tdcommons.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1092&context=dpubs_series" target="_blank">http://www.tdcommons.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1092&context=dpubs_series</a><br>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
</span>
<div>Good luck refining it into something most
people will be able to understand enough to
trust. (Not a sarcastic comment: that really is a
large problem getting this system deployed on more
than niche electorates.) <br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
<div>Perhaps if more companies begin using it like Google
does, or we roll it out in very sub-national realms, people
will slowly become comfortable with it? It looks promising
enough that it might be worth pushing for on a smaller
scale, to see how far people can take it before
insurmountable problems show up.</div>
<div>Connor</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
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</span></blockquote><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">
<br>
<pre cols="72">--
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University</pre>
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