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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body bgcolor=white lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'> extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Anders Sandberg<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, May 01, 2016 10:16 AM<br><b>To:</b> extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] Global catastrophic risk report<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>On 2016-05-01 18:36, spike wrote:<br><br><o:p></o:p></p><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>There must be ways to cash in on this belief by betting against it, by betting on climate non-change.</span><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><br><br><br><span style='color:windowtext'>>…</span>If you think climate change is overblown, you should presumably expect the insurance business to be too cautious, and you could presumably make good money (in expectation) through long-term, widely distributed cat bonds. -- Anders Sandberg<span style='color:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>Ja there is that.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>I find it most striking the catastrophic failure in translating the scientific consensus on climate change with the public perception of climate change. For instance, my best guess on scientific consensus is about 2C in the next century. Is that about the consensus now? This would be accompanied by about a 20 cm rise in sea level? Anyone know the best estimate of the models?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>If you ask especially the younger set, the consensus will be waaaay more and faster change. So there is an enormous disparity in public perception and the scientific community, with the disparity getting dramatically larger as you get younger than currently college age.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>It would be interesting to find a way to average the results (a direct average doesn’t help, since the one uninformed yahoo guessing a meter sea level change swamps the 99 guessing 1 cm.) Also, there is a time element. Perhaps the best we can do then is to take the sea level change per year average and temperature change per year estimated by Science Inc, compare to the general public perception average for both, see how we can make money on the spread.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><pre><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></pre></div></body></html>