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On 2016-05-01 19:32, spike wrote:<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext"><o:p> </o:p>I
find it most striking the catastrophic failure in
translating the scientific consensus on climate change with
the public perception of climate change. For instance, my
best guess on scientific consensus is about 2C in the next
century. Is that about the consensus now? This would be
accompanied by about a 20 cm rise in sea level? Anyone know
the best estimate of the models?</span></p>
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<br>
I guess the 2014 IPCCC is as mainstream as you can go. 2C and 20cm
is about median of their scenarios:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html">https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html</a><br>
<br>
<blockquote cite="mid:009601d1a3cf$7d248c40$776da4c0$@att.net"
type="cite">
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext">If
you ask especially the younger set, the consensus will be
waaaay more and faster change. So there is an enormous
disparity in public perception and the scientific community,
with the disparity getting dramatically larger as you get
younger than currently college age.</span></p>
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This is a bit like popular preceptions of risk, where risks commonly
reported in media (murder, terrorism, exotic diseases) are
overestimated by many times, while less reported risks (falls, auto
accidents, stroke) are underestimated. Peope get more worried about
being a victim of crime the more tv they watch. <br>
<br>
Of course, thinking climate change will be drastic and intense does
not preclude thinking not much will change in one's personal future
- people are really inconsistent between near and far mode thinking.
A survey of risk perceptions showed that many in the public expect
apocalyptic disaster in their lifetime, yet do not seem to act on it
(by lowering their time horizon). <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University</pre>
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