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On 2016-05-12 21:41, Dan TheBookMan wrote:<br>
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<div>"While I wouldn't want to risk it, my guess is other folks
in the chain of command would likely not follow orders.
However, let's set that aside. Let's say you're right: Trump
in office would increase the odds of a nuclear war. By how
much? Maybe Caplan is right about the overall 2.5 times risk.
Let's say 2.5 times whatever the base rate would be or,
better, than Clinton or Sanders. (My guess is Sanders would be
less bellicose than either Trump or Clinton.)</div>
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You can estimate the base rate by doing a Bayesian update on a
uniform prior [0,1] of nuclear war probability per year, given 70
years of no war. That gives you an expected 1.4% risk per year. <br>
<br>
If we accept the 2.5 increase, that means 3.5% risk per year. Over 4
years that is 13% risk of a nuclear war (compared to 5.4% for normal
presidents). <br>
<br>
(Note that if you accept the above calculation, living in the
vicinity of a primary target makes a health risk more significant
than almost any pollutants or epidemic diseases.)<br>
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<div> Now, what can you do about this? Panic? Build a bomb
shelter? My guess is very little aside from get worked up."</div>
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Move to Tasmania?<br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University</pre>
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