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On 2016-05-16 12:10, Anders Sandberg wrote:<br>
<blockquote cite="mid:57399C8C.8060907@aleph.se" type="cite">
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If one buys the xrisk model instead, the time spent in peace in
this post's model is 88%, crisis 7.9%, and war 3.9% - in this
particular case there is actually very little change. <br>
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Oops, a tiny error due to using the wrong code: the right numbers
should be roughly peace 87.6%, crisis 7.99% and war 4.39%. <br>
<br>
While the average time to nuclear war is 97.5 years; this
corresponds to a yearly risk to 1.03% if you fit an exponential
distribution to it (a fairly decent fit except for the initial few
years). <br>
<br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University</pre>
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