<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:#000000">see below Anders' post for my post</div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Sat, Jul 9, 2016 at 8:36 AM, Anders Sandberg <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:anders@aleph.se" target="_blank">anders@aleph.se</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000">
Thinking about what is most important is actually one of the more
important parts of my job :-) However, there is a difference between
something that is intrinsically valuable and important to strive for
(say finding and doing The Meaning of Life) and what you should be
prioritizing *right now* (like getting out of the way of a speeding
car, or reducing existential risk). <br>
<br>
Nick Bostrom's "little theory of problems" puts it nicely:<br>
<ul>
<li>There are many problems in the world. Not all of them ought to
be solved.</li>
<li>Important problems are those for which the value of a solution
is either large and positive or large and negative.</li>
<li>Not all important problems ought to be solved.</li>
<li>We can distinguish positive-value problems (some of which are
high-value, others low-value) from negative-value problems.</li>
<li>Not all important positive-value problems ought to be
addressed.</li>
<li>Elastic problems are those whose solution can be found
significantly sooner with one extra unit of effort.</li>
<li>We ought to address high-value high-elasticity problems.</li>
<li>“Discoveries” are acts that move the arrival of some
information from a later point in time to an earlier point in
time.</li>
<li>The value of a discovery does not equal the value of the
solution discovered. The value of a discovery equals the value
of having the solution moved from the later time at it would
otherwise have arrived to the time of the discovery.</li>
</ul>
<p>― Nick Bostrom</p>
<p>So, of the problems at the Infinity Project, which ones are
high-value high-elasticity problems where we benefit from getting
the result early?</p>
<p>Below, I went through a few pages of problems (so this is not
complete) and gave a quick-and-dirty evaluation on this based on
my views. If we then regard "low=1", "moderate=2" and "high=3" and
multiply them together we can get a rough prioritization. So my
top choices would be superintelligence, pandemics, electronics
risk and life extension, followed by world hunger, academic
papers, getting to LEO and safe cars. <br>
</p>
<p>Evaluations<br>
</p>
<p>No-suffering economic system: moderate value, low elasticity, low
benefit early arrival: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Safe cars: moderate+ value, high elasticity, moderate early
arrival: 12<br>
</p>
<p>Bacterial computer: low, moderate, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Transparency: moderate, low, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Risk adjustment: moderate, moderate, moderate: 8<br>
</p>
<p>Superintelligence: high, moderate, high: 18<br>
</p>
<p>Life extension: high, moderate, low/high (depending on whether
you count your utility): 12,18<br>
</p>
<p>Mind recovery: high, low, low: 3<br>
</p>
<p>World hunger: high, moderate, moderate: 12<br>
</p>
<p>Conference collection: low -, high, moderate: 6<br>
</p>
<p>Content reusability: low, moderate, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Cryoprotectant: low, moderate, moderate: 4<br>
</p>
<p>Incentivizing breakthroughs: moderate, moderate, moderate: 8<br>
</p>
<p>Realising potential: moderate, low, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Track personal energy: low, high, low: 3<br>
</p>
<p>Schizophrenia: moderate, low, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Realizing ideas: low, low, low: 1<br>
</p>
<p>Understanding: low, low, low: 1<br>
</p>
<p>Brain preservation: moderate, moderate, moderate: 8<br>
</p>
<p>Academic papers: moderate, high, moderate: 12<br>
</p>
<p>Wild animal suffering: high, low, moderate: 6<br>
</p>
<p>Sharing code: low, high, low: 3<br>
</p>
<p>Filmmaking: low, low, low: 1<br>
</p>
<p>Synchronization: low, high, low: 3<br>
</p>
<p>GRBs: low, low, low: 1 (GRBs are very rare)<br>
</p>
<p>Climate change: moderate, moderate, moderate: 8<br>
</p>
<p>LEO: high, moderate, moderate: 12<br>
</p>
<p>Electronics risk: moderate, high, high: 18<br>
</p>
<p>Superintelligence: high, moderate, high: 18<br>
</p>
<p>Pandemic: high, moderate, high: 18<br>
</p>
<p>Waits: low, moderate, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Brain health: low, high, low: 3<br>
</p>
<p>Book writing: low, moderate, low: 2</p><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><pre cols="72">Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University</pre></font></span></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"comic sans ms",sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline">Yes, there is a difference between a puzzle and a problem, but where are the guidelines here? Why not solve all important problems? ??? If they weren't interfering with the human race they would not be called important. Some explication is needed here. </div></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"comic sans ms",sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline"><br></div></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"comic sans ms",sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline">I would add two to this list: pollution, and bacteria super-resistant to</div> <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"comic sans ms",sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline">antibiotics.</div></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"comic sans ms",sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline"><br></div></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"comic sans ms",sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0);display:inline">Bill w</div></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000"><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><pre cols="72"></pre>
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