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Thinking about what is most important is actually one of the more
important parts of my job :-) However, there is a difference between
something that is intrinsically valuable and important to strive for
(say finding and doing The Meaning of Life) and what you should be
prioritizing *right now* (like getting out of the way of a speeding
car, or reducing existential risk). <br>
<br>
Nick Bostrom's "little theory of problems" puts it nicely:<br>
<ul>
<li>There are many problems in the world. Not all of them ought to
be solved.</li>
<li>Important problems are those for which the value of a solution
is either large and positive or large and negative.</li>
<li>Not all important problems ought to be solved.</li>
<li>We can distinguish positive-value problems (some of which are
high-value, others low-value) from negative-value problems.</li>
<li>Not all important positive-value problems ought to be
addressed.</li>
<li>Elastic problems are those whose solution can be found
significantly sooner with one extra unit of effort.</li>
<li>We ought to address high-value high-elasticity problems.</li>
<li>“Discoveries” are acts that move the arrival of some
information from a later point in time to an earlier point in
time.</li>
<li>The value of a discovery does not equal the value of the
solution discovered. The value of a discovery equals the value
of having the solution moved from the later time at it would
otherwise have arrived to the time of the discovery.</li>
</ul>
<p>― Nick Bostrom</p>
<p>So, of the problems at the Infinity Project, which ones are
high-value high-elasticity problems where we benefit from getting
the result early?</p>
<p>Below, I went through a few pages of problems (so this is not
complete) and gave a quick-and-dirty evaluation on this based on
my views. If we then regard "low=1", "moderate=2" and "high=3" and
multiply them together we can get a rough prioritization. So my
top choices would be superintelligence, pandemics, electronics
risk and life extension, followed by world hunger, academic
papers, getting to LEO and safe cars. <br>
</p>
<p>Evaluations<br>
</p>
<p>No-suffering economic system: moderate value, low elasticity, low
benefit early arrival: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Safe cars: moderate+ value, high elasticity, moderate early
arrival: 12<br>
</p>
<p>Bacterial computer: low, moderate, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Transparency: moderate, low, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Risk adjustment: moderate, moderate, moderate: 8<br>
</p>
<p>Superintelligence: high, moderate, high: 18<br>
</p>
<p>Life extension: high, moderate, low/high (depending on whether
you count your utility): 12,18<br>
</p>
<p>Mind recovery: high, low, low: 3<br>
</p>
<p>World hunger: high, moderate, moderate: 12<br>
</p>
<p>Conference collection: low -, high, moderate: 6<br>
</p>
<p>Content reusability: low, moderate, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Cryoprotectant: low, moderate, moderate: 4<br>
</p>
<p>Incentivizing breakthroughs: moderate, moderate, moderate: 8<br>
</p>
<p>Realising potential: moderate, low, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Track personal energy: low, high, low: 3<br>
</p>
<p>Schizophrenia: moderate, low, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Realizing ideas: low, low, low: 1<br>
</p>
<p>Understanding: low, low, low: 1<br>
</p>
<p>Brain preservation: moderate, moderate, moderate: 8<br>
</p>
<p>Academic papers: moderate, high, moderate: 12<br>
</p>
<p>Wild animal suffering: high, low, moderate: 6<br>
</p>
<p>Sharing code: low, high, low: 3<br>
</p>
<p>Filmmaking: low, low, low: 1<br>
</p>
<p>Synchronization: low, high, low: 3<br>
</p>
<p>GRBs: low, low, low: 1 (GRBs are very rare)<br>
</p>
<p>Climate change: moderate, moderate, moderate: 8<br>
</p>
<p>LEO: high, moderate, moderate: 12<br>
</p>
<p>Electronics risk: moderate, high, high: 18<br>
</p>
<p>Superintelligence: high, moderate, high: 18<br>
</p>
<p>Pandemic: high, moderate, high: 18<br>
</p>
<p>Waits: low, moderate, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p>Brain health: low, high, low: 3<br>
</p>
<p>Book writing: low, moderate, low: 2<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University
</pre>
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