<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Verdana;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
p
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
p.msonormal0, li.msonormal0, div.msonormal0
{mso-style-name:msonormal;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}
span.EmailStyle20
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>John Clark<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, September 05, 2016 7:22 AM<br><b>To:</b> ExI chat list <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org><br><b>Subject:</b> [ExI] To Aaronson Trump<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><cite><b><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333;font-style:normal'>John K Clark</span></b></cite><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333'> Says: <br></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#777777'>Comment #71 <a href="http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2887#comment-1317371"><span style='color:#0066CC;text-decoration:none'>September 4th, 2016 at 9:32 pm</span></a></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:7.5pt;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:18.0pt'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333'>In the 2012 presidential election Nate Silver correctly predicted how every state would go, and as of today he says Trump has a 30.9% chance of taking command of the most powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet in 137 days. That terrifies me; if I played Russian Roulette I’d only have a 16.6% chance of losing.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:7.5pt;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:18.0pt'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333'><a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus"><span style='color:#0066CC;text-decoration:none'>http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:7.5pt;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:18.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:7.5pt;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:7.5pt;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>So do we sit around being terrified, or do we influence congress to secure the football, do something which would actually solve the problem rather than choose which flavor of problem we wish to face?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:7.5pt;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Nate Silver uses only polls. He has never done a poll in which one candidate faced a looming email dump, nor is he dealing with Friday’s FBI report, in which one of the candidates is STILL telling a blatantly self-contradictory story, one which gets crazier sounding with each new version.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:7.5pt;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Hear the footsteps John. They are getting louder every day.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:7.5pt;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:7.5pt;margin-right:3.75pt;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:18.0pt'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></div></body></html>