<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Sorry about that, I meant to send that to somebody else.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">John</div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Sep 5, 2016 at 10:21 AM, John Clark <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:johnkclark@gmail.com" target="_blank">johnkclark@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><cite style="font-weight:bold;font-style:normal;font-size:1.1em;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',verdana,arial,sans-serif;text-align:justify">John K Clark</cite><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.824px;text-align:justify"> Says: </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.824px;text-align:justify"><small style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:0.9em;line-height:1.5em;color:rgb(119,119,119);margin:0px;display:block;text-align:justify">Comment #71 <a href="http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2887#comment-1317371" title="" style="color:rgb(0,102,204);text-decoration:none" target="_blank">September 4th, 2016 at 9:32 pm</a></small><p style="line-height:1.5em;margin:10px 5px 10px 0px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.824px;text-align:justify">In the 2012 presidential election Nate Silver correctly predicted how every state would go, and as of today he says Trump has a 30.9% chance of taking command of the most powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet in 137 days. That terrifies me; if I played Russian Roulette I’d only have a 16.6% chance of losing.</p><p style="line-height:1.5em;margin:10px 5px 10px 0px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.824px;text-align:justify"><a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus" rel="nofollow" style="color:rgb(0,102,204);text-decoration:none" target="_blank">http://projects.<wbr>fivethirtyeight.com/2016-<wbr>election-forecast/?ex_cid=<wbr>rrpromo#plus</a></p></div></div>
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