<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><cite style="font-weight:bold;font-style:normal;font-size:1.1em;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',verdana,arial,sans-serif;text-align:justify">John K Clark</cite><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.824px;text-align:justify"> Says: </span><br style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.824px;text-align:justify"><small class="gmail-commentmetadata" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:0.9em;line-height:1.5em;color:rgb(119,119,119);margin:0px;display:block;text-align:justify">Comment #71 <a href="http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2887#comment-1317371" title="" style="color:rgb(0,102,204);text-decoration:none">September 4th, 2016 at 9:32 pm</a></small><p style="line-height:1.5em;margin:10px 5px 10px 0px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.824px;text-align:justify">In the 2012 presidential election Nate Silver correctly predicted how every state would go, and as of today he says Trump has a 30.9% chance of taking command of the most powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet in 137 days. That terrifies me; if I played Russian Roulette I’d only have a 16.6% chance of losing.</p><p style="line-height:1.5em;margin:10px 5px 10px 0px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucida grande',verdana,arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.824px;text-align:justify"><a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus" rel="nofollow" style="color:rgb(0,102,204);text-decoration:none">http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus</a></p></div></div>