<html>
<head>
<meta content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" http-equiv="Content-Type">
</head>
<body bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000">
On 2016-09-15 22:09, John Clark wrote:<br>
<blockquote
cite="mid:CAJPayv22unAqV5UMnyW2+z3_hvjMkaCiYdHnSFbXz8sronhL3A@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="ltr">
<div class="gmail_default"
style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span
style="font-family:arial,sans-serif">On Wed, Sep 14, 2016 at
7:38 PM, Anders </span><span dir="ltr"
style="font-family:arial,sans-serif"><<a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:anders@aleph.se"
target="_blank">anders@aleph.se</a>></span><span
style="font-family:arial,sans-serif"> wrote:</span><br>
</div>
<div class="gmail_extra">
<div class="gmail_quote"><br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="gmail_default"
style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">>
</div>
this all assumes rational and error-free players.</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_default"
style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"><font
size="4">And that is just about as far from a real life
situation as it is possible to get.</font></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<br>
Nah. 70 years of no nuclear war gives apparent evidence that things
are not too bad. Correcting for anthropic bias and including the
numerous near misses still seems to lead to the conclusion that the
system is not super-bad. On the other hand, it does suggest that a
less conscientious or sane country very quickly could mess things
up. <br>
<br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University</pre>
</body>
</html>