<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif">On Thu, Sep 15, 2016 at 10:22 PM, Anders </span><span dir="ltr" style="font-family:arial,sans-serif"><<a href="mailto:anders@aleph.se" target="_blank">anders@aleph.se</a>></span><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif"> wrote:</span><br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><div class="gmail_quote"><br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex"></blockquote></div></div><blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex" class="gmail_quote"><div class="gmail_extra"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">>>> </div>this all assumes rational and error-free players.</blockquote></blockquote></div></div></blockquote><div class="gmail_extra"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><br><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_extra">
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</div></div></span><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex"><span><span style="font-size:large;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">>> </div>And that is just about as far from a real life
situation as it is possible to get.</span></span></blockquote><span>
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">> </div>Nah. 70 years of no nuclear war gives apparent evidence that things
are not too bad.</div></blockquote><div><br></div><div><font size="4"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">I admit there is some truth in that, if you had predicted the day after Nagasaki that as of 2016 </div> <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">no other nuclear bomb would have been used in anger I would have said you were crazy.</div></font></div><div><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex"><div bgcolor="#FFFFFF"> <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">></div>Correcting for anthropic bias and including the
numerous near misses still seems to lead to the conclusion that the
system is not super-bad.</div></blockquote><div><br></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"><font size="4">T</font></div><font size="4">he system was also super lucky,<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"> </div>the human race came very close to extinction in 1962. During the <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">Cuban Missile Crisis </div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">all </div>the president's advisers<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"> </div>(except for his brother Robert) <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">,</div>including all the military ones<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">,</div> were urging the President not to wait and to take action immediately. Chief of the US Air Force, General Curtis LeMay (a VERY scary man) and the head of the Strategic Air Command Thomas Powers <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"> </div>(even LeMay called him a sadist) told the president if we didn't order the missile sites in Cuba bombed within the hour it would be<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"> </div>a blot on the honor of the USA<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">. </div>Kennedy asked LeMay what he thought the Soviets would do if he did that. LeMay said he understood how the soviets think and because such an attack would be bound to kill lots of Russians manning the site they couldn't let it pass, he said they would probably retaliate by bombing our<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"> </div>medium range nuclear missiles in Turkey. Kennedy asked what we should do then, LeMay said such an attack would kill American soldiers and that would have to be avenged by bombing nuclear missile sites in the USSR itself. Kennedy asked what the Soviets would do then, LeMay said he hoped at that point cooler heads would prevail.</font></div><div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div><font size="4"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Actually it was even worse than that. We now know from recently declassified </font><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">USSR archives that the nuclear missiles in Cuba were fully operational in </span><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">October 1962 and that the Russian field commanders were authorized to fire </span><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">them on their own authority if it looked like the missiles were about to be<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"> </div></span><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">destroyed or captured. The field commanders had the launch codes! Castro<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"> </div></span><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">knew this, Kennedy did not.<div class="gmail_default" style="display:inline"> </div></font><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">The USA thought incorrectly that the missiles were not yet operational and </span><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">they never dreamed they could be fired without a direct order from Moscow. </span></font></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div><font size="4"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><div class="gmail_default" style="display:inline">And the USA didn't know until decades after the crises that there were also 98 </div></font>tactical nuclear weapons <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">in</div> Cuba <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"> that had no need for launch codes for them to be used: there were </div>80 nuclear-armed <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">"Front" </div>cruise missiles<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">,</div> 12 nuclear warheads <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">in </div>Luna short-range rockets, and 6 nuclear bombs <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">that any airplane could drop.</div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"></div></span></font></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline"><br></div></span></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="display:inline"><font size="4">If John Kennedy had done what the overwhelming consensus of his advisors said he should do, or if Kennedy had the temperament intelligence and emotional stability of Donald Trump then we would not be having this conversation right now.</font><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"> </font></div></div></div><div><br></div><div> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex"><div bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">> </div>On the other hand, it does suggest that a
less conscientious or sane country very quickly could mess things
up. <br></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div><font size="4"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;display:inline">If Trump wins then in 4 years there will be a dozen more nuclear armed nations in the world, a dozen times more chances that some world leader will make a mistake. And even if we survive the 4 disastrous years of a Trump administration and a sane president is elected after him the damage will be permanent, that nuclear proliferation bell can not be un-rung and we will just have to live, or die, in a far more dangerous world. </div> </font></div><div><br></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font size="4">And people still want to talk about Hillary's 5 year old E-mail server. I don't get it. I honestly don't get it.</font></div></div><div><font size="4"><br></font></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font size="4"> John K Clark</font></div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div> </div></div><br></div></div>