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The main effect is cooling in modern climate models. The Toon and
Robock models (<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/">http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/</a>) typically
use 5 Tg of black carbon for regional nuclear conflicts (remember,
Pakistan and India are shooting at each other too, regardless of
Trump) and 150 Tg for full-scale wars. Presumably there would be
about the same order of magnitude or more CO2. Current carbon
emissions are on the order of 10 Pg per year - a factor of 66 or so.
<br>
<br>
The extra CO2 would contribute some extra heating. However, soot is
many orders of magnitude better at absorbing light than CO2, so it
wins and heats up the stratosphere instead of letting the
troposphere absorb the heat - so as long as the optical depth is
affected (about a decade). After that the extra CO2 would add heat,
but emissions would likely strongly reduce in the intervening time,
so it seems likely that the overall effect would be very minor. <br>
<br>
Overall Robock seems to be the one to follow in regards to models.
There is not much competition in the nuclear climate model field -
most researchers seem to think these models are not academically
interesting, so they do not work on them. I have been working behind
the scenes to change it (muhahaha), but I have a feeling that I
might have to learn how to do climate codes myself to get it done
properly.<br>
<br>
(Plus, just imagine the roleplaying game worldbuilding potential of
having general circulation models at your fingertips!)<br>
<br>
<br>
On 2016-11-04 22:01, spike wrote:<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">
extropy-chat [<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org">mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Dylan Distasio<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal">>… Hypothetically, if Trump wins,
I'd like to spend my last days before the nuclear winter
on other topics…<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We could start a discussion on what
kinds of strategies could be used for construction of bomb
shelters and food storage I suppose, but there is a
related topic that interests me. Back in the 70s Carl
Sagan proposed a model for what would happen should the US
and the commies go at it. But a lot has changed since
those days. For instance, those models were based on the
notion that nuclear war would kick up enormous amounts of
dust and particulates, which would scatter sunlight and
dim the earth’s surface causing cooling. But the same
factors which did that would also create huge amounts of
carbon dioxide which would warm the planet. So some
extent, the particulate would also absorb and re-radiate
solar energy, so that might participate in warming as
well.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So… should either of the two mainstream
candidates win, which is looking pretty likely at this
point, and that person starts WW3, will we get net cooling
or net warming? And how do we find out which are likely
targets, so that we know how elaborate to make our bomb
shelters? How much food and ammo should we store? Iodine
tablets? And since the two mainstreamers each have
different opponents they intend to provoke (or have
already provoked with accusations which have turned out to
be false) only one of which has nukes, do not we need to
wait until Tuesday’s result to determine if we need to
make a shelter?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Has anyone here followed nuclear winter
models?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">spike<o:p></o:p></p>
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<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University</pre>
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