<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Consolas;
panose-1:2 11 6 9 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;
color:black;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
pre
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New";
color:black;}
p.msonormal0, li.msonormal0, div.msonormal0
{mso-style-name:msonormal;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;
color:black;}
span.gmail-hoenzb
{mso-style-name:gmail-hoenzb;}
span.HTMLPreformattedChar
{mso-style-name:"HTML Preformatted Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted";
font-family:Consolas;
color:black;}
span.EmailStyle21
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body bgcolor=white lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>>…On Behalf Of </span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>Anders<br><b>Subject:</b> [ExI] Model uncertainty (Was: LIGO)<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>On 2016-11-09 19:51, William Flynn Wallace wrote:<br><br><o:p></o:p></p><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#222222'>I am still trying to get my head around that: how could we have seen two crazy-unlikely events in just a few weeks? My view of the cosmos must be serious flawed. COOL!</span><span style='font-size:20.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#222222'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#888888'>This expresses my feeling exactly. I think somewhere along the line I lost contact with the human race and am seriously out of contact with reality. I am still stunned. </span><span style='font-size:20.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#888888'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><br><span style='color:windowtext'>>…</span>In fact, this is an interesting development. Pollsters and information markets missed the UK election, Brexit and the US election. The models are clearly wrong<span style='color:windowtext'>… </span>Dr Anders Sandberg<span style='color:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'>Anders I can explain this I think. This crazy election cycle was the first time in my life it really felt dangerous to express one’s political views. We saw people attacked for wearing Trump hats and T-shirts. Right here in San Jose, there was a Trump rally which was attacked:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCx3ov55tUw">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCx3ov55tUw</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'>The attack on the rally was a direct attack on free speech. It became dangerous to be anything other than a Trump adversary.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'>With that in mind, what do you do if someone calls wanting to do a political poll? You have no idea who is on the other end (they have their number blocked) but they know who you are, since they just called you. With a phone number, they can get an address. With an address, they can come for a visit. If they come for a visit, you might die. Nowthen, shall we continue our poll?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'>I made it clear enough online that I was a Johnson supporter, but I wouldn’t tell any anonymous pollster that. I wouldn’t tell them anything. I told them right up front why I wouldn’t tell them anything. I don’t know how that was recorded in their polls.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'>I hope we return to a time when it is safe to have political views. In the meantime, the polls are unreliable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'>That being said, I am astonished I haven’t heard anyone suggest the commies hacked the voting machines. So I will be the first to suggest it. Those damn things just hafta go. What if this election had been a cliffhanger and we learned then that the machines had been hacked? How would we do a recount? And once we learned the paperless machine votes cannot be recounted (so they can’t be counted at all) and only the paper votes count, then how do we argue the election was legitimate? What if we did a recount using only paper votes and it reversed the result? Oh that could be trouble.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:windowtext'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>