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On 2016-11-09 19:51, William Flynn Wallace wrote:<br>
<blockquote
cite="mid:CAO+xQEbk0m820jRU+JbJk9Eg-sBUQ=8tabQb5z_1n4V+3z+ZRg@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"comic sans
ms",sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0)">
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:27.2px"><span
style="font-size:14pt;font-family:calibri,sans-serif">I am
still trying to get my head around that: how could we have
seen two crazy-unlikely events in just a few weeks? My
view of the cosmos must be serious flawed. COOL!<span
class="gmail-HOEnZb"></span></span></p>
<span class="gmail-HOEnZb"
style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:27.2px"><font
color="#888888">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:14pt;font-family:calibri,sans-serif">This
expresses my feeling exactly. I think somewhere along
the line I lost contact with the human race and am
seriously out of contact with reality. I am still
stunned. <br>
</span></p>
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</blockquote>
<br>
In fact, this is an interesting development. Pollsters and
information markets missed the UK election, Brexit and the US
election. The models are clearly wrong. Even if one accepted that
the 15% chance of Trump on Monday evening was true and we saw a 15%
probability event, the swathe of other recent polling failures
demonstrate that something important has changed.<br>
<br>
Generally, I think there is both an epistemic uncertainty about how
to poll current people properly, and a more meaty uncertainty about
what is going on politically. I have recently shifted away from my
previous model that people had a broken epistemology because of
networked media to a model that what we are seeing is more a tribal
defense of core values (Haidt's explanation: <a
href="http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/07/10/when-and-why-nationalism-beats-globalism/">http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/07/10/when-and-why-nationalism-beats-globalism/</a>
).<br>
<br>
Now, realizing that one's model is not correct and trying to fix it
is an uneasy but exciting place. Especially since it might mean one
should change strategy about a lot of things. <br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University</pre>
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