<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div class="">I’ve been reading Peter Turchin’s work, including Ages of Discord. His semi-Malthusian theory predicts that pretexts will be found for fighting a civil war, or something like it, when the conditions are right. The issues are only the the flame that ignites the flammable material provided by demographic and economic conditions. I find it a fairly persuasive theory. Is anyone familiar with it?</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Tara</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><br class=""><div><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Jan 25, 2017, at 9:16 AM, spike <<a href="mailto:spike66@att.net" class="">spike66@att.net</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=""><div class="WordSection1" style="page: WordSection1; font-family: Optima-Regular; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><b class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">From:</span></b><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>extropy-chat [<a href="mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114); text-decoration: underline;" class="">mailto:extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org</a>]<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">On Behalf Of<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b>Will Steinberg<br class=""><br class=""><b class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></b></span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><b class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </span></b></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><b class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </span></b></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><b class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">>…</span></b>I think this civil war was going to happen regardless of who got into power. The people who hate the left are the ones with the guns right now! … Will<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Will, I disagree sir. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Regarding gun rights, a civil war in the US cannot break out over that issue: one side has too big an advantage. Thanks second amendment.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">In the US civil war of the 19<sup class="">th</sup><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>century, there was a major issue around which the people could choose sides: slavery. One major party wanted to keep it, the other wanted it banned. What do we have now analogous to that? Nothing. Our current culture war has not even a single clear issue on which people split left and right. Can you think of one? Looking at how acrimonious was our last major election, can you see any major issue in which the candidates differed significantly? Neither can I. Is not this a paradox? These two candidates were mostly on the same page as far as I could tell.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">The best I can do is free trade and open immigration, neither of which would form a logical basis for a civil war. It strains the imagination to think anyone would be willing to take up arms against countrymen in order to allow unchecked immigration or buy foreign manufactured goods cheaply. Anything else?<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">spike<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div></div></div></blockquote></div><br class=""></body></html>