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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:24.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:22.5pt;background:#F4F4F4;vertical-align:baseline'><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#110000'>…On Friday, officials said the Pentagon will try to shoot down an intercontinental-range missile for the first time in a test this week. The goal is to more closely simulate a North Korean ICBM aimed at the U.S. homeland, officials said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:24.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:22.5pt;background:#F4F4F4;vertical-align:baseline;box-sizing: border-box;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;orphans: 2;text-align:start;widows: 2;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;word-spacing:0px'><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#110000'>North Korea is now the focus of U.S. efforts because its leader has vowed to field a nuclear-armed missile capable of reaching American territory…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/pentagon-conduct-icbm-intercept-test/story?id=47667872">http://abcnews.go.com/International/pentagon-conduct-icbm-intercept-test/story?id=47667872</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Shall we start a betting pool on whether the attempted intercept will hit the target?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>This is a fun one. Back in the Reagan years, there were definite signs of thawing of cold war rivalries. By 1991, the US and the commies were retiring nuclear missiles. In that time frame I saw the first early concepts of a ground-fired hit-to-kill vehicle. This caused a huge debate on whether the whole notion was in violation of existing ABM treaties. The way it was handled was to insist that it was really aimed against Iran, Iraq and North Korea. This debate was going on when the current Dear Leader was age 7 years.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I remember the dark days of that program. At first we never missed the target, assuming the target was the ground. Sometimes we went in circuitous paths, but we hit that target every time. I was on and off with that program during the 1990s, but it was not much fun to work there until the first successful intercept in about summer of 1999. It was a much more pleasant office after that first successful intercept. The THAAD office was widely considered a career graveyard back in the 1990s, but the controls work was very interesting. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Intercept tests since then are about 50% or so. This is a harder test than has ever been done.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Is this not remarkable? The top military brass was already thinking about how to deal with the Dear Leader and his offspring at least 26 yrs ago. The same think-tanks were extrapolating (both ours and the commies) realizing that if the yanks work out hit-to-kill, we could eventually hit an ICBM, which undermines the notion of Mutual Assured Destruction. Tuesday we may face a new peril: we might enter an era in which Russia and the US cannot completely destroy each other. How shall we cope?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>From a controls perspective, hitting an ICBM is one heeeeeelllll of a difficult task. Were I buying shares, I would pay about 30 cents. Shall we start a play-money version? No software needed, just suggest a price, we will see where they average out. Assume you have about 100 shares I just set the price to 30 cents. Bettors, are you buying or selling?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The test is scheduled for Tuesday. Good luck to the good guys!<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>