<div dir="ltr">Before China can win the battle of Taiwan, it must first win the battle of Hong Kong, which is currently underway.<br></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, Oct 7, 2019 at 12:04 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">
<div>"Today, however, such a deployment would no longer elicit the same
response in a potential adversary. In part, the change reflects the
closing of the enormous technological advantage the U.S. Navy had
enjoyed for decades over any realistic rival. New classes of quiet
diesel submarines and new developments in mine and torpedo technology
make operations close to tense coastlines far more dangerous today than
in the past. As a result, U.S. aircraft carriers are no longer immune
from risk when entering waters within range of enemy forces."</div><div><br></div><div>
“In today’s Navy, the aircraft carrier has become ‘too big to sink,’” wrote Navy Lt. Jeff Vandenengel, a submariner, in a <a href="https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017/may/too-big-sink" target="_blank">provocative article</a> in the U.S. Naval Institute’s journal <em>Proceedings</em>
two years ago. “Yet the Navy remains blind to the reality that its
carriers—by way of destruction, damage, or deterrence from completing
their missions—are poised for defeat in battle.”
</div><div><br></div><div>As the technological edge the U.S. has with
it's military, continues to slip, what should America do to maintain the
advantage? If Iran, a second or third tier rival, is a problem for us,
how do we prepare for a possible conflict with a resurgent China? Do we
improve the range and stealth capacity of our anti-ship missiles? Build
more advanced drones for destroying enemy aircraft, missiles, aquatic
mines and subs? Create a new form of stealth tech, should China's
"quantum radar" prove to be effective? Install laser weapons on all our
larger vessels, to stop hordes of incoming planes and missiles? Build
more destroyers, to lessen the urgent need to use our carriers? Deploy
massive rail guns for very long range bombardments (which could be nice
for leveling artificial islands in the South China Sea)? Have a 21st
century return to the battleship, through this technology? Oh, and what
about improving private corporate security measures, so our research and
development efforts are not stolen by China's very effective espionage
machine?<br></div><div><br></div><div>I have a Russian "frenemy" online,
who would mock me by saying the problem with the American military
industrial complex, is that it throws huge amounts of money at various
weapons programs, but the private companies who take up the contracts,
are not fully held accountable. And so after a vast budget is spent,
they may not have any real solid results, to show for it. <br></div><div><br></div><div>China's
"president for life," wishes to see his country essentially be the
world's foremost superpower, by 2049, which will be the 100th
anniversary of the regime. I suspect by then China will have attempted
an invasion of Taiwan, which within a decade or two, would be very
difficult for the U.S. and her allies to resist, due to their arms
build-up. The PRC is deploying a vast sensor array at the bottom of the
ocean, around Taiwan, to detect enemy subs. And drone torpedoes would
make those waters extremely hostile for American and alliance subs and
surface ships... China has built bunkers on their coastline, armed with
literally thousands of anti-ship missiles, to overcome the defenses of
incoming American carrier task forces. <br></div><div><br></div><div>The
PRC understands that unless they have air and sea domination, that
their vulnerable invasion force of naval transports, crammed with troops
and tanks, will be slaughtered, causing a huge humiliation to the
regime. But we would be fighting them in their own frontyard, which
gives them a huge homefield advantage. <br></div><div><br></div><div>And
then their longterm plan (as explained in leaked war college documents)
is to use a captured Taiwan as a chokehold over the ocean trade routes
of Japan. Our greatest ally in the region at that point, could be
brought to their knees by a PRC naval blockade. <br></div><div><br></div><div>I
think a takeover of Taiwan, by the PRC is inevitable, but it may be
decades until it can be achieved. And China may wish to patiently bully
them into submission, rather than risk so much, by an invasion. But then
again, a successful invasion of Taiwan would shout to the world that
China had finally arrived as an undisputed superpower, that even the
United States, with her allies, could not stop.<br></div><div><br></div><div>What are your thoughts?<br></div><div><br></div><div><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/" target="_blank">https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/</a></div><div><br></div><div><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/30/the-u-s-navy-isnt-ready-to-take-on-iran/?utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=15284&utm_term=Editor#39;s%20Picks%20OC" target="_blank">https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/30/the-u-s-navy-isnt-ready-to-take-on-iran/?utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=15284&utm_term=Editor#39;s%20Picks%20OC</a></div><div><br></div><div>John<br></div>
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