<div dir="auto">More evidence from Spike's neck of the woods that the real rate of spread is likely massively higher:<div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The most important implication of these findings is that the number of infections is much greater than the reported number of cases. Our data imply that, by April 1 (three days prior to the end of our survey) between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of confirmed positive cases in the county on April 1 was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of infections predicted by this study.17 The infection to case ratio, also referred to as an under-ascertainment rate, of at least 50, is meaningfully higher than current estimates.10,18 This ascertainment rate is a fundamental parameter of many projection and epidemiologic models, and is used as a calibration target for understanding epidemic stage and calculating fatality rates.19,20 The under-ascertainment for COVID19 is likely a function of reliance on PCR for case identification which misses convalescent cases, early spread in the absence of systematic testing, and asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic infections that go undetected. <br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><a href="https://tinyurl.com/ydgsj8av">https://tinyurl.com/ydgsj8av</a><br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 1:52 PM Dylan Distasio <<a href="mailto:interzone@gmail.com" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">interzone@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">Spike-<div><br></div><div>Thanks for posting this, as I had not seen it yet, but for me, it is one more plank for the hypothesis that I have been working with based strictly on my own armchair analysis. We have seen prior evidence that a very large portion of CV-19 positive carriers are completely asymptomatic (especially younger, healthy ones). My working theory is that CV-19 got to the US earlier than suspected by many, and has spread to way more people than many suspect in areas like the NYC metro region. </div><div><br></div><div>I think it is extremely contagious and aerolizes very easily despite what we were originally told, and that if we had been encouraged to wear masks early on (assuming one could find them) that the spread would have been greatly slowed. My buddy who is a paramedic who did have very good proper PPE and followed best practices still ended up with it. People on the cruise ship also got it even in quarantine which points to it easily getting onto food service items from those workers or through the ventilation system. I also suspect the real CFR is pretty close to typical influenza and that the German CFR is not an outlier due to the total infected counts being WAY under counted.</div><div><br></div><div>Based on SARs patterns alone (a very simple model), I suspect this will have run its course in the US by early June (with some possible flare ups in localized hot spots). I also find it highly likely that it will be seasonal and die off over the summer despite some of the "experts" saying otherwise. </div><div><br></div><div>Since we've already gone down the path of destroying the US economy (which I was against), I think we should probably keep the NYC metro region in the status quo through the end of May and then start reopening it in stages as proposed by the Feds. I think any states that don't have a big problem with it should begin that phased reopening TODAY. I think high risk groups should continue to avoid going out more than necessary and continue more extreme measures until better treatment or a vaccine is developed.</div><div><br></div><div>There are still a lot of open questions around immunity and the possibility of recurrence, but for me, this entire exercise has been a HUGE overreaction. Sweden may be getting a lot of bad press recently with the number of deaths, but their curves on active cases look the same as everyone else's at far less economic cost.</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Fri, Apr 17, 2020 at 1:36 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div lang="EN-US"><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div style="border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;border-top:1pt solid rgb(225,225,225);padding:3pt 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal">> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] shops opening<u></u><u></u></p></div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">>…I would point out donut shops ARE essential services for the boys/gals in blue!<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Well ja, there is that. Donut shops are perhaps the safest place to hang out in the whole city: always constables hanging around.<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Dylan et al, what is your take on this please? Does it seem plausible? If true, it is important:<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/coronavirus-clue-most-cases-aboard-stricken-us-aircraft-carrier-are-symptom-free" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/coronavirus-clue-most-cases-aboard-stricken-us-aircraft-carrier-are-symptom-free</a><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p style="margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:15pt;margin-left:0in;background:white"><span style="font-size:14.5pt;font-family:Georgia,serif;color:rgb(51,51,51)">…The Navy's testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94 per cent complete - was an extraordinary move...<u></u><u></u></span></p><p style="margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:15pt;margin-left:0in;background:white;box-sizing:border-box;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;text-align:start;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;word-spacing:0px"><span style="font-size:14.5pt;font-family:Georgia,serif;color:rgb(51,51,51)">…Roughly 60 per cent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of Covid-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says…<u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">We know that some people can carry HIV for decades and never develop AIDS. Others just spin right into the ground almost immediately.<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">This carrier represents a big enough sample, carefully controlled (they have been quarantined together) where they know their medical histories, so this might be a really important dataset.<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">spike<u></u><u></u></p></div></div></div>_______________________________________________<br>
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