<div dir="ltr">Yea, funny how fast the herd flipps. You now see lots of articles like this:<div><a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/columnists/daniel-howes/2020/01/16/self-driving-vehicle-hype-reckoning-reality/4481239002/">https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/columnists/daniel-howes/2020/01/16/self-driving-vehicle-hype-reckoning-reality/4481239002/</a> </div><div>while 6 month ago it was the opposite. <br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Jun 9, 2020 at 4:49 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">Thanks much for posting this. I'm VERY interested to read your paper as this has been my gut instinct based on anecdotal review of automation and deep learning initiatives. Apple is a good example of attempting to automate an entire production line for the iPhone and failing miserably despite a ton of talent and money thrown at it. It's very hard to replace the versatility of a human being for most tasks at this point outside of some specialized use cases. Tesla is another one.</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Jun 9, 2020 at 6:30 PM Robin D Hanson via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
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<div> Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that for many years the media has been almost screaming that we entering a big automation revolution, with huge associated job losses, due to new AI tech, especially deep learning. … Last December,
Keller Scholl and I posted a working paper suggesting that this whole narrative is bullshit, at least so far. An automation revolution driven by a new kind of automation tech should induce changes in the total amount and rate of automation, and in which kinds
of jobs get more automated. But looking at all U.S. jobs 1999-2019, we find no change whatsoever in the kinds of jobs more likely to be automated. We don’t even see a net change in overall level of automation, though language habits may be masking such changes.
And having a job get more automated is not correlated at all with changes in its pay or employment. Our working paper is now published in a peer-reviewed journal. </div>
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<a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/06/no-recent-automation-revolution.html" target="_blank">http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/06/no-recent-automation-revolution.html</a><br>
<a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1bCkWbZedqLrV" target="_blank">https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1bCkWbZedqLrV</a><br>
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<div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px">
Robin Hanson <a href="mailto:rhanson@gmu.edu" target="_blank">rhanson@gmu.edu</a> <br>
Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford University<br>
Assoc. Prof. Economics, George Mason University<br>
See my books: <a href="http://ageofem.com" target="_blank">http://ageofem.com</a> <a href="http://elephantinthebrain.com" target="_blank">
http://elephantinthebrain.com</a><br>
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