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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>BillK, I hear that Leicester kept their pubs closed as most of UK opened theirs yesterday:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53290314">https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53290314</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>This can provide perhaps the most valuable test cases available anywhere on the planet. It is a big enough city with reliable news sources, informed people, sufficient testing and medical resources, we can compare to other cities which opened. England has become the world’s mine canary.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>It has long been my contention that all economies everywhere must re-open soon, otherwise they face even bigger problems than 2% of their population perishing of covid. At some point we need to be able to estimate the cost in lives to open vs the cost in lives to stay closed. California did that calculus and started opening recently, but it is too soon to know for sure the result. There is a weekend effect for both new cases and deaths, so late tomorrow we might have an indication of where California is going. By that time, the new cases from bars (if that is a big factor) might be measurable.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>