<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Helvetica;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
span.EmailStyle20
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> spike@rainier66.com <spike@rainier66.com> <br><br><b><o:p></o:p></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b>>…</b>So, just carry the caveat all the way up in these terms:<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>>…Covid-19 fatalities herein did not necessarily die of Covid-19.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>>…Now isn’t that simple? Just carry those 9 words all the way up. Statisticians know to do this…spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Now this is interesting. The most critical number to me isn’t what is happening in UK or Belgium or Los Angeles, the most critical numbers I need to know are the ones for Santa Clara County, which is where public school decisions are being made. So I go to their site, which has new caveats that showed up today, such as this one, in bold red font:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:red;background:white'>Due to a significant and unresolved problem with the State of California’s CalREDIE reporting system, the County of Santa Clara Public Health Department, as well as county public health departments statewide, are experiencing significant underreporting of COVID-19 testing results. Because of this problem, the information presented in this dashboard/these dashboards since mid-July 2020 is incomplete. We will provide updates on the status of these reporting delays as soon as they are available. Additional information about these delays may be available from the State of California.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>OK well, that’s good to know: the new case rate might be under-reported.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Unlike the California state site, Santa Clara County (and all the neighboring counties) carry this caveat:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#252525;background:white'>Deaths provided in this dashboard do not necessarily mean that the individuals died from COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>OK that too is good to know: we have deaths mixed with Covid-19 deaths in the database.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx">https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The graph itself is now labeled: New and Cumulative Deaths by Date of Death. The graph itself does not actually say covid-19 deaths, merely “new and cumulative deaths by date of death.” Above the graph is a dashboard where it does specify the number as “Cumulative COVID-19 Deaths”. It does not say OF or WITH on the most visible part of the dashboard. It sure looks self-contradictory to me.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Conclusion: we have a junky dataset here, it is feeding up to the California state level where they throw away the caveats, and the local authorities are using suspect data to decide the fate of our schools.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#252525;background:white'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></div></body></html>