<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><!--[if !mso]><style>v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
</style><![endif]--><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
span.gmaildefault
{mso-style-name:gmail_default;}
span.EmailStyle19
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>John Clark via extropy-chat<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] Do your own research<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>On Thu, Aug 6, 2020 at 11:30 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><i> </i><span class=gmaildefault><i><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>></span></i></span><i>Perhaps we should be looking to Sweden for guidance</i><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.5pt'>>…Perhaps </span><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Sweden is not the best example if we're looking for pandemic wisdom, maybe </span></span><span style='font-size:13.5pt'>we could get better guidance by </span><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>observing</span></span><span style='font-size:13.5pt'> </span><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>the </span></span><span style='font-size:13.5pt'>other Scandinavian countries…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.5pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Or just compare them against each other. Sweden is the world’s mine canary, having never shut stuff down.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.5pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.5pt'>>… Denmark has had 619 deaths from COVID-19, Finland has had 331, Norway has had 256, but Sweden has had 5,766. </span><o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.5pt'>J</span><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>ohn K Clark<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>OK. Sweden was doing something seriously wrong in March and April, but in May, June, July and August, things went well for them:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img border=0 width=750 height=473 style='width:7.8125in;height:4.927in' id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image002.jpg@01D66BE6.3EDDC620"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img border=0 width=703 height=510 style='width:7.3229in;height:5.3125in' id="Picture_x0020_2" src="cid:image004.jpg@01D66BE6.3EDDC620"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Sweden is doing better than New York and Texas with their aggressive shutdowns, and way better than California with its mixed approach.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Looking up there at Sweden, who didn’t ever go the shutdown route, we next might need to look at business failure rates, suicide rates and school scores to figure out the cost in human lives of a shutdown.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Given Sweden somehow managed to bring this to the ground without a shutdown, could this be what herd immunity looks like? What if… these Nordic countries just have a higher natural resistance to flu? If so, that would make sense: they are cooped up indoors for a long time in the winter, they go outside a lot in the summer, we have good indications the risk of outdoor transmission is comparatively low because the political rallies, rock concerts and protest riots didn’t show a lot of transmission.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>So… is that Sweden signal indicating Stefan was right and that eventually herd immunity is the way?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></body></html>